Modelli formali della crisi. (Mathematical models of the crisis)


  • Giancarlo Gandolfo


Parole chiave:

Cultura economica, Crisi finanziaria, Regole


In this paper a distinction is made between the immediate technical-financial causes that unleashed the crisis in the United States, and its macroeconomic causes, which also explain its international transmission. Two formal paradigmatic models are considered. The first is Li’s formula on default correlation (“The Formula that Killed Wall Street”), whose misuse gave rise to the crisis. The second is the international financial multiplier set forth by Paul Krugman. After examining these two models, the paper concludes that, contrary to widespread opinion, the crisis was indeed foreseen by some economists, who, coming from the non-mainstream side of the profession, were largely ignored.

JEL: G01, F3, E44



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