Tassi di cambio fluttuanti, deprezzamento valutario e domanda effettiva (Floating exchange rates, currency depreciation and actual demand)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3651/9752Parole chiave:
tassi di cambio, domanda aggregata, occupazione, salariAbstract
Il presente articolo esamina i vantaggi relativi dei tassi di cambio fluttuanti nei confronti di un regime di tassi di cambio a parità rigidamente ancorate (hard peg), ponendo particolare enfasi sulle implicazioni per la domanda effettiva. In particolare, esso valuta se un deprezzamento della valuta abbia un effetto benefico sulla domanda aggregata e dunque sull’occupazione. Si sostiene che tale questione è centrale per il principio della domanda effettiva, e che l’idea che un deprezzamento valutario sia in grado di stabilizzare la domanda effettiva, equivale in larga misura a sostenere che la flessibilità (verso il basso) dei salari nominali (e reali) possa assicurare la piena occupazione. Coerentemente con ciò, viene analizzata la relazione tra la flessibilità verso il basso dei salari e la domanda effettiva, e viene valutata criticamente (dal punto di vista sia teorico sia empirico) l’ipotesi che la flessibilità del tasso di cambio possa avere proprietà stabilizzanti quando si tenga conto di shock esogeni di varia natura. L’articolo si chiude con brevi deduzioni di teoria e di politica economiche.
This paper examines the relative advantages of floating exchange rates against a system of exchange rates for the same rigidly anchored (hard peg), with particular emphasis on the implications for effective demand. In particular, it will assess whether a currency depreciation has a beneficial effect on aggregate demand and hence employment. It is argued that this issue is central to the principle of effective demand, and that the idea that a currency depreciation is able to stabilize the effective demand, is equivalent to a large extent to support that flexibility (down) in nominal wages (and real) to ensure full employment. Consistent with this, we analyze the relationship between the downward flexibility of wages and effective demand, and is critically evaluated (in terms of both theoretical and empirical) hypothesis that the flexibility of the exchange rate can have stabilizing properties when account is taken of external shocks of varying nature. The article closes with brief conclusions of economic theory and policy.
JEL Codes: E0, F4, N1
Keywords: tassi di cambio, domanda aggregata, occupazione, salari
Riferimenti bibliografici
AGÉNOR P.R. (1991), "Output, devaluation and the real exchange rate in developing countries", Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, Bd 127, pp. 18-41.
BOUGRINE H. and M. SECCARECCIA (2004), "Alternative exchange rate arrangements and effective demand: an important missing analysis in the debate over greater North American monetary integration", Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, vol. 26, no. 4, pp. 655-77
BRESSER-PEREIRA L.C. (2004) "Brazil’s quasi-stagnation and the growth cum foreign savings strategy", International Journal of Political Economy, vol. 32, no. 4, pp. 76-102.
CALVO G.A. and F.S. MISHKIN (2003), "The mirage of exchange rate regimes for emerging market countries", Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 17, no. 4, pp. 99-118.
CALVO G.A. and C.M. REINHART (2002), "Fear of floating", The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 117, no. 2, pp. 379-408.
COPELMAN M. and A.M. WERNER (1995), "The money transmission mechanism in Mexico", International Finance Discussion Paper, no. 521, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, Washington.
DAVIDSON P. (2003), "Are fixed exchange rates the problem and flexible exchange rates the cure?", Eastern Economic Journal, vol. 29, no. 2, pp. 259-68.
EDWARDS S. (1989), Real Exchange Rates, Devaluation, and Adjustment, MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass.
EDWARDS S. and E. LEVY YEYATI (2003), "Flexible exchange rates as shock absorbers", NBER Working Paper, no. 9867.
EICHENGREEN B. (1994), International Monetary Arrangements for the 21st Century, The Brookings Institution, Washington.
EICHENGREEN B. (1998), "The only game in town", University of California, Berkeley, mimeo.
FISCHER S. (2001), "Exchange rate regimes: is the bipolar view correct?", Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government, American Economic Association Meetings, New Orleans.
HOFFMAISTER A.W. and C.A. VEGH (1996), "Disinflation and the recession-now-versus-recession-later hypothesis: evidence from Uruguay", IMF Staff Papers, vol. 43, pp. 355-94.
KALDOR N. (1965), "The relative merits of fixed and floating rates", ristampato in Further Essays on Applied Economics, Duckworth, London, 1978, pp. 47-59.
KALECKI M. (1939), "Money and real wages", ristampato in J. Osiatinsky ed, Collected Works of Michal Kalecki, vol. 2, Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1991, pp. 21-50.
KALECKI M. (1944), "Professor Pigou on ‘The classical stationary state’: A comment" ristampato in J. Osiatinsky ed, Collected Works of Michal Kalecki, vol. 1, Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1990, pp. 342-43.
KAMIN S. and M. KLAU (1997), "Some multi-country evidence on the effects of real exchange rates on output", Working Paper, no. 48, Bank for International Settlements, Basle.
KAMIN S.B. and J.H. ROGERS (1997), "Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico", International Finance Discussion Paper, no. 580, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington.
KEYNES J.M. (1936), The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, Harcourt Brace, New York.
KEYNES J.M. (1980), The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, vol. 26, Macmillan, London.
KRUGMAN P. and L. TAYLOR (1978), "Contractionary effects of devaluation", Journal of International Economics, no. 8, pp. 445-56.
LÓPEZ J., A. SPANOS and A. SÁNCHEZ (2006), "Macroeconomic links in Mexico. A Keynesian-structuralist perspective", Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, mimeo.
MORLEY S.A. (1992), "On the effect of devaluation during stabilization programs in LDCs", Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 74, no. 1, pp. 21-27.
MUNDELL R. (1961), "A theory of optimum currency areas", The American Economic Review, vol. 51, no. 3, pp. 657-65.
ONARAN O. and E. STOCKHAMMER (2004), "Do profits affect investment and employment? An empirical test based on the Bhaduri-Marglin model", Working Paper, no. 44, Vienna University of Economics and Business Administration.
PALLEY T.I. (2003), "The economics of exchange rates and the dollarization debate: the case against extremes", International Journal of Political Economy, vol. 33, no. 1, pp. 61-82.
PREBISCH R. (1951), Economic Survey of Latin America 1949, United Nations, New York.
RODRIGUEZ G.H. and G. DIAZ GAZANI (1995), "Fluctuaciones macroeconómicas en la economía peruana", Processed Document, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
ROGERS J.H. and P. WANG (1995), "Output, inflation and stabilization in a small open economy: evidence from Mexico", Journal of Development Economics, vol. 46, no. 2, pp. 271-93.
SANTAELLA J. and A.E. VELA (1996), "The 1987 Mexican disinflation program: an exchange-rate-based stabilization?", IMF Working Paper, no. 96/24, Washington.
SECCARECCIA M. (2003-2004), "Is dollarization a desirable alternative to the monetary status quo? A critical evaluation of competing currency arrangements for Canada", Studies in Political Economy, no. 71/72, 2003/Winter 2004, pp. 91-108.
SKIDELSKY R. (2001), John Maynard Keynes. Fighting for Freedom, Viking, New York.
SVENSSON L. (1999), "Price-level targeting vs. inflation targeting: a free lunch", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 31, no. 3, part 1, pp. 277-95.
THIRLWALL A.P. (1979), "The balance of payments constraint as an explanation of the international growth rate differences", Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, vol. 32, no. 128, pp. 45-53.
THIRLWALL A.P. (2003), Trade, the Balance of Payments and Exchange Rate Policy in Developing Countries, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham.
VINES D. (2003), "John Maynard Keynes 1937-1946: the creation of international macroeconomics", The Economic Journal, vol. 113, no. 488, pp. 338-61.
##submission.downloads##
Pubblicato
Fascicolo
Sezione
Licenza
Ogni materiale pubblicato sul sito e gli articoli pubblicati sulla rivista sono distribuiti con Licenza internazionale Creative Commons Attribuzione - Non commerciale - Non opere derivate 4.0. Copia della licenza è disponibile alla URL http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0. Gli autori mantengono i diritti sulla loro opera e cedono alla rivista il diritto di prima pubblicazione dell'opera con la licenza suindicata.
