Modelli di crisi valutarie e misure di politica economica (Exchange Rate Crises Models and Economic Policy Measures)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3651/9791Parole chiave:
Crisis, Exchange RatesAbstract
Some recent articles explain the Asian crisis almost exclusively in terms of "fundamentals". The role played by private sector's expectations, however, should also be considered. In my view, then, "escape clause" models exhibiting multiple equilibria within a grey area, especially when integrated with the possibility that expectations may change exogenously so as to modify the grey area itself, allow a better understanding of exchange rate crises. When considering the role played by expectations, the economic policy measures to be adopted in order to assure the stability of financial and currency markets differ from the remedies emerging when those aspects are ignored.
JEL Codes: F31, F32
Keywords: Crisis, Exchange Rates
Riferimenti bibliografici
AGHION, P., P. BACCHETTA e A. BANERJEE (2000), "A simple model of monetary policy and currency crises", European Economic Review, vol. XLIV, no. 4-6, pp. 728-38.
ATKESON, A. e J. V. RÌOS-RULL (1995), "How Mexico lost its foreign exchange reserves", NBER Working Paper, no. 5329.
CHANG, H. (1998), "Korea: the misunderstood crisis", World Development, vol. XXVI, no. 8, pp. 1555-61.
CHANG, H., (2000), "The hazard of moral hazard: untangling the Asian crisis", World Development, vol. XXVIII, no. 4, pp. 775-88.
CHANG, H., G. PALMA e D.H. WHITTAKER (1998), "The Asian crisis: introduction", Cambridge Journal of Economics, vol. XXII, no. 6, pp. 649-52.
CHANG R. e A. VELASCO, (1998), "Financial crises in emerging markets: a canonical model", NBER Working Paper, no. 6606.
CORSETTI, G. (1999), "Interpreting the Asian financial crisis: open issues in theory and policy", Asian Development Review, vol. XVI, no. 2, pp. 1-45.
CORSETTI, G., P. PESENTI e N. ROUBINI (1998), "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?", Japan and the World Economy, vol. XI, no. 3, pp. 305-73.
DE CECCO, M. (1990), "Introduzione", in M. de Cecco, a cura di, L'Italia e il sistema monetario internazionale, Laterza, Roma-Bari, pp. 1-53.
DELLA POSTA, P. e B. CHELI (2001), "Attacchi speculativi autorealizzantisi con informazione incompleta: alcuni commenti", Politica Economica, vol. XVII, n. 3, pp. 285-315.
DI MARTINO, P. (1999), "A re-discovered approach: Irving Fisher's debt-deflation theory", History of Economic Ideas, vol. VII, no. 3, pp. 193-207.
DORNBUSCH, R. (1999), "Emerging market crises: origins and remedies", mimeo; http://web.mit.edu/rudi/www/papers.
DORNBUSCH, R. (2000), "Capital controls: an idea whose time is gone", Wirtschaftspolitische Blätter, vol. XLVII, no. 4, pp. 390-94.
DORNBUSCH, R. (2001), "A primer on emerging market crises", NBER Working Paper, no. 8326. EICHENGREEN, B. e C. WYPLOSZ (1993), "The unstable EMS", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol. I, pp. 51-124.
EICHENGREEN, B., J. TOBIN e C. WYPLOSZ (1995), "Two cases for sand in the wheels of international finance", The Economic Journal, vol. CV, no. 428, pp. 162-72.
FARMER, R. (1999), Macroeconomics, South-Western College, Cincinnati.
FISHER, I. (1933), "The debt-deflation theory of great depressions", Econometrica, vol. I, pp. 337-57.
FLOOD, R. e P. GARBER (1984), "Collapsing exchange rate regimes: some linear examples", Journal of International Economics, vol. XVII, no. 1-2, pp. 1-13.
GOLDSTEIN, M. (1998), The Asian Financial Crisis: Causes, Cures, and Systemic Implications, Policy Analyses in International Economics, vol. 55, Institute for International Economics, Washington.
HARCOURT, G.C. (1994), "Taming speculators and putting the world on course to prosperity: a modest proposal", Economic and Political Weekly, vol. XXIX, no.38, pp. 2490-92.
HARCOURT, G.C. (2001), 50 Years a Keynesian and Other Essays, Palgrave, New York.
IRWIN, G. e D. VINES (1999), "A Krugman-Dooley-Sachs third generation model of the Asian financial crisis", CEPR Discussion Paper, no. 2149.
JEANNE, O. (1997), "Are currency crises self-fulfilling? A test", Journal of International Economics, vol. XLIII, no. 3-4, pp. 263-68.
JEANNE, O. (2000), "Currency crises: a perspective on recent theoretical developments",Special Papers in International Economics, no. 20, International Finance Section, Princeton University.
KREGEL, J.A. (1998), "East Asia is not Mexico: the difference between balance of payments crises and debt deflations", in Tigers in Trouble: Financial Governance,Liberalisation and Crises in East Asia, Hong Kong University Press, Hong Kong and Zed Books, London, pp. 44-62.
KRUGMAN, P. (1979), "A model of balance-of-payments crises", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. XI, no. 3, pp. 311-25.
KRUGMAN, P. (1996), "Are currency crises self-fulfilling?", in B. Bernanke e J. Rotemberg eds, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Mit Press, Cambridge and London, pp.345-78.
KRUGMAN, P. (1998), "What happened to Asia?"; http://www.wws.princeton.edu/~pkrugman/.
KRUGMAN, P.(1999), "Balance sheets, the transfer problem and financial crises", International Tax and Public Finance, vol. VI, no. 4, pp. 459-72.
KRUGMAN, P. (1999), "Analytical afterthoughts on the Asian crisis"; http://www.wws. princeton.edu/~pkrugman/.
MORRIS, S. e H. S. SHIN (1998), "Unique equilibrium in a model of self-fulfilling currency attacks", American Economic Review, vol. LXXXVIII, no. 3, pp. 587-97.
OBSTFELD, M. (1986), "Rational and self-fulfilling balance of payments crises", American Economic Review, vol. LXXVI, no. 1, pp. 72-81.
OBSTFELD, M. (1994), "The logic of currency crises", Cahiers Economiques et Monétaires, vol. XLIII, no. 43, pp. 189-213.
OBSTFELD, M. (1996), Comment to Krugman (1996), in B. Bernanke and J. Rotemberg eds, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Mit Press, Cambridge and London, pp.379-85.
OBSTFELD, M. e K. ROGOFF (1995), "The mirage of fixed exchange rates", Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. IX, no. 4, pp. 73-96.
PALMA, G. (1998), "Three and a half cycles of "Mania, panic, and [asymmetric] crash':East Asia and Latin America compared", Cambridge Journal of Economics, vol. XXII, no. 6, pp. 789-808.
RADELET, S. e J.D. SACHS (1998), "The East Asian financial crisis: diagnosis, remedies, prospects", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol. I, pp. 1-74.
STIGLITZ, J. (1998), "The role of international financial institutions in the current global economy", Address to the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations, Chicago, February 27.
TOBIN, J. (1978), "A proposal for international monetary reform", Eastern Economic Journal, vol. IV, pp. 153-59.
TOBIN, J. (1994), "Speculators' tax", New Economy, vol. I, no. 2, pp.104-09.
TOBIN, J. (1996), "A currency transaction tax: why and how", Economic Systems, vol. XX, no. 2-3, pp. 85-90.
TOBIN, J. (1996), "Prologue", in ul Haq, Kaul e Grunberg eds, pp. IX-XVIII.
TRONZANO, M. (2001), "Alternative approaches to evaluate exchange rate credibility: a selective survey of the literature and some policy implications for the European monetary union", Economia Internazionale/International Economics, vol. LIV, no. 1, pp. 57-88.
UL HAQ, M, I. KAUL e I. GRUNBERG eds (1996), The Tobin Tax: Coping with Financial Volatility, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
WEI, S. (2001), "Domestic crony capitalism and international fickle capital: is there a connection?", International Finance, vol. IV, no. 1, pp. 15-45.
##submission.downloads##
Pubblicato
Fascicolo
Sezione
Licenza
Ogni materiale pubblicato sul sito e gli articoli pubblicati sulla rivista sono distribuiti con Licenza internazionale Creative Commons Attribuzione - Non commerciale - Non opere derivate 4.0. Copia della licenza è disponibile alla URL http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0. Gli autori mantengono i diritti sulla loro opera e cedono alla rivista il diritto di prima pubblicazione dell'opera con la licenza suindicata.
