Balance-of-payments constrained economic growth: the case of Mexico
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643/10604Keywords:
Economics, Research and Development in the Social Sciences and Humanities, Models, MexicoAbstract
An analytical model for balance-of-payment constraints is developed to analyse the economic crisis which swept the entire Mexican region during the early 1980s. Analytical results suggest that a modification of the long-term income multipliers of the proposed framework may be effected by implementing a long-term constant ratio of the current account to nominal gross domestic product. It is further shown that Mexico's economic instability was largely caused by the inadequacy of foreign exchange resources necessary in driving domestic growth.
JEL Codes: E01, G01
References
ARMENDARIZ, B. and P. ARMENDARIZ (1995), "Debt relief, growth and price stability in Mexico", Journal of Development Economics, vol. 48, pp. 135-49.
ASPE, P. (1993), The Economic Transformation: The Mexican Way, MIT Press, Cam-bridge, Mass.
BANCO DE MEXICO (1997), The Mexican Economy, Mexico.
BANCO DE MEXICO, Carpeta de Indicadores Económicos, various issues, Mexico.
BAZDRESCH, C. and S. LEVY (1991), "Populism and economic policy in Mexico: 1970-82", in R. Dornbusch and S. Edwards eds, The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
BUFFIE, E.F. and A. SANGINES (1989), "Mexico 1958-86: from stabilizing development to the debt crisis", in J.D.Sachs ed., Developing Country Debt and the World Economy, The University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
BURKI, S.J. and S. EDWARDS (1995), Latin America After Mexico: Quickening the Pace, The World Bank, Washington.
CHENERY, H. and A. STROUT (1966), "Foreign assistance and economic development", American Economic Review, vol. 56, pp. 679-733.
CORDEN, M.W. (1994), Economic Policy, Exchange Rates, and the International System, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
DORNBUSCH, R. and A. WERNER (1994), "Mexico: stabilization, reform, and no growth", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, pp. 253-315.
DUSSEL P.E. (1995), "Recent developments in Mexican employment and the impact of NAFTA", International Labor Studies, vol. 5, pp. 45-69.
ECLAC-INEGI - ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE ESTADISTICA, GEOGRAFIA E INFORMATICA (1993), Magnitud y Evolución de la Pobreza en México: 1984-1992, INEGI, Mexico.
ECLAC - ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (1998), La evolución de la economia de México en 1997, Mexico.
EDWARDS, S. (1995), Crisis and Reform in Latin America: from Despair to Hope, Oxford University Press, New York.
FISCHER, S. (1997), Capital Account Liberalization and the Role of the IMF, IMF, Washington.
HARROD, R. (1933), International Economics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
HIRSCH, M.W. and S. SMALE (1974), Differential Equations, Dynamical Systems and Linear Algebra, Academic Press, San Diego.
INEGI - INSTITUTO NACIONAL DU ESTADISTICA, GEOGRAFIA E INFORMATICA, Sistema de Cuentas Nacionales, Mexico, various issues.
KRUGMAN P. (1993), "International finance and economic development", in A. Giovannini ed., Finance and Development: Issues and Experience, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
LUSTIG, N. (1992), Mexico: The Remaking of an Economy, Brookings Institution, Washington.
MADDISON, A. (1995), Monitoring the World Economy: 1820-1992, OECD, Paris.
MCCOMBIE, J.S.L. and A.P. THIRLWALL (1994), Economic Growth and the Balance of Payments Constraint, St Martin's Press, New York.
MCCOMBIE, J.S.L. and A.P. THIRLWALL (1997), "Economic growth and the balance-of-payments constraint revisited", in Arestis, P. et al. eds, Markets, Unemployment and Economic Policy, Routledge, New York.
MORENO-BRID, J.C. (1998), "Trade liberalization and import demand in Mexico", unpublished manuscript, Cambridge, Mass.
MORENO-BRID, J.C. (1998), "On capital flows and the balance-of-payments constrained growth model", Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 283-89.
MORENO-BRID, J.C. and J. ROS (1994), "Market reform and the changing role of the state in Mexico: a historical perspective", in A.K. Dutt et al. eds, The State, Markets and Development, Edward Elgar, Aldershot.
OECD - ORGANIZATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT (1996), Mexico 1997, Paris.
PUGNO, M. (1998), "The stability of Thirlwall's model of economic growth and the balance-of-payments constraint", Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, vol. 20, no. 4, pp. 559-81.
RAMIREZ, M. (1988), Mexico's Economic Crisis: Its Origins and Consequences, Praeger, New York.
ROS, J. (1997), "Employment, structural adjustment and sustainable growth in Mexico", Employment and Training Papers, no. 6, International Labor Office, Geneva.
SKOTT, P. and P. AUERBACH (1995), "Cumulative causation and the"new" theories of economic growth", Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, vol. 17, no. 3, pp. 381- 402.
SOLIS, L. (1981), Economic Policy Reform in Mexico: A Case Study for Developing Countries, Pergamon Press, New York.
SOLOW, R. (1956), "A contribution to the theory of economic growth", Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 70, pp. 65-94.
SIUNIVASAN, T.N. (1995), "Long-run growth theories and empirics: anything new?", in T. Ito and A. Krueger eds, Growth Theories in Light of the East Asian Experience, The University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
TAYLOR, L. (1996), "Growth, the state and development theory", in A. Solimano ed., Road Maps to Prosperity: Essays on Growth and Development, The University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor.
THIRLWALL, A.P. (1979), "The balance of payments constraint as an explanation of international growth rates differences", Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, vol. XXXII, no. 128, pp. 45-53.
THIRLWALL, A.P. and M.N. HUSSAIN (1982), "The balance of payments constraint, capital flows and growth rates differences between developing countries", Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 10, pp. 498-509.
VAN WIJNBERGEN, S. (1990), "Growth, external debt and the real exchange rate in Mexico", in D.S. Brothers and A.E. Wick eds, Mexico's Search for a New Development Strategy, Westview Press, Boulder.
VAN WIJNBERGEN, S. (1991), "The Mexican debt deal", Economic Policy, April, pp. 13-43.