Inflation, recession and the burden of private debt
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643/11479Keywords:
Debt, inflation, balance sheet problems, recession, cyclical declineAbstract
The paper seeks to show that sectoral balance-sheet positions can develop along unstable lines as a result of both long-term and special short-term factors. The emergence of balance-sheet problems may therefore render an economy more vulnerable than usual to cyclical decline. This does not mean that a sharp recession may become unavoidable, but it does have important implications for the mix and strength of macro-economic policy. Attention is focused mainly on debt relationships in the United States, but its conclusions are based partly on comparisons with debt behaviour in Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom.
JEL: E31, F32, E32