Capital Market Inflation in Emerging Markets: the Cases of Brazil and South Korea

Authors

  • Bruno Bonizzi SOAS, University of London

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643/11989

Keywords:

Finance, Asset price inflation, Foreign Investors

Abstract

The paper considers the cases of Brazil and South Korea, two key emerging markets, to assess the relationship between capital flows and equity prices. Building on Jan Toporowski’s theory of capital market inflation, we argue that foreign capital inflows into the equity markets of emerging economies have substantially contributed to creating the excess liquidity that gives rise to capital market inflation there. Particular attention is given to the idea that equity flows can in many cases bring upward pressure on stock prices in emerging markets. Both the fast and unrestricted financial integration of Brazil and South Korea into global financial markets, and the two countries’ considerable financial and economic size, justify the choice of these two case studies. The empirical evidence, especially concerning capital flows and equity prices in relation to the impact of foreign investors, is consistent with the hypothesis of capital market inflation in both countries.

 

Jel codes: F65, F36, G12, O57

 

References

Ahn, B. (2008). Capital flows and effects on financial markets in Korea: developments and policy responses. BIS Papers chapters, 44:305–320.

Akyüz, Y. (2011). Capital flows to developing countries in a historical perspective: Will the current boom end with a bust? Research Paper, South Centre, 37.

Andrade, R.P., and Prates, D.M. (2013). "Exchange Rate Dynamics in a Peripheral Monetary Economy." Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 35(3):399–416.

Bernanke, B. (2005). The global saving glut and the us current account deficit. Remarks at the Sandridge Lecture, Virginia Association of Economics, 10.

Blanchard, O. and Milesi-Ferretti, G. (2009). Global imbalances: in midstream? IMF Staff Position Note, SPN/09/29.

Bonizzi, B. (2013) Financialization in developing and emerging countries: a survey, International Journal of Political Economy, 43(4):83-107, forthcoming

Bovespa (2007). Bovespa divulga balanco de 2007 , (in portuguese). Available from: http://www.acionista.com.br/bovespa/040108_balanco_2007.htm.

Brunnermeier, M. K. (2009). Bubbles: Entry in New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. Palgrave.

Carvalho, F. and de Souza, F. (2009). Financial regulation and macroeconomic stability in Brazil in the aftermath of the Russian crisis. Documentos Técnicos ITF.

Chinn, M. D. and Ito, H. (2008). A new measure of financial openness. Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research and Practice, 10(3):309–322.

de Paula, L. (2010). Financial liberalization and economic performance: Brazil at the Crossroads, volume 85. Routledge.

Economist (2010). Petrobras's record share issue. now comes the hard bit. Economist. Available from: http://www.economist.com/blogs/americasview/2010/09/petrobrass_record_share_issue.

Evans, L. (2001). What Drives Equity Values: Fundamentals Or Net Flows? : an Empirical Analysis of the 1982-1999 U.S. Stock Market Boom. PhD thesis, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.

Gourinchas, P. and Jeanne, O. (2007). Capital flows to developing countries: The allocation puzzle. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Papers, 13602.

Kalinowski, T. and Cho, H. (2009). The political economy of financial liberalization in South Korea: State, big business, and foreign investors. Asian Survey, 49(2):221–242.

Kaltenbrunner, A. (2011) Currency Internationalisation and Exchange Rate Dynamics in Emerging Markets: A Post Keynesian Analysis of Brazil, PhD, SOAS, University of London.

Kim, S. and Yang, D. (2008). Managing capital flows: the case of the republic of Korea. Asian development bank institute, 88.

Kose, M., Prasad, E., Rogoff, K. S., and Wei, S. (2006). Financial globalization: A reappraisal. IMF Working Papers, 6189(200):1–94.

Lane, P. and Milesi-Ferretti, G. (2007). The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004. Journal of International Economics, 73(2):223–250.

Lapavitsas, C. (2009). Financialisation embroils developing countries. Discussion Papers 14, Research on Money and Finance.

Levy-Yeyati, E. and Williams, T. (2011). Financial globalization in emerging economies: Much ado about nothing? World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 5624.

Mauro, P., Dell'Ariccia, G., di Giovanni, J., Faria, A., Kose, M., Schindler, M., , and Terrones, M. (2008). Benefits of financial globalization, volume 264. International Monetary Fund.

Mishkin, F. (2007). Is financial globalization beneficial? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39(2-3):259–294.

MSCI (2012). MSCI announces the results of the 2012 annual market classification review. Available from: http://www.msci.com/eqb/pressreleases/archive/Mkt_Class_2012.pdf.

Obstfeld, M. (2010). Expanding gross asset positions and the international monetary system. In Proceedings of the 2010 Jackson Hole Symposium, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

Obstfeld, M. (2012). Does the current account still matter? richard t. ely lecture. In American Economic Association Annual Meeting, Chicago, Ill., January, volume 6, page 2012.

Obstfeld, M. and Rogoff, K. (2010). Global imbalances and the financial crisis: products of common causes.

O'Neill, J. (2001). Building better global economic BRICs. Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper, 66.

O'Neill, J., Wilson, D., Purushothaman, R., and Stupnytska, A. (2005). How solid are the BRICs? Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper, 134.

Ostry, J., Ghosh, A., Habermeier, K., Chamon, M., Qureshi, M., and Reinhardt, D. (2010). Capital inflows: The role of controls,". IMF Staff Position Note, SPN/10/04.

Painceira, J. P. (2009) Developing Countries in the Era of Financialisation: From Deficit Accumulation to Reserve Accumulation, Discussion Paper 14, Research on Money and Finance.

Prasad, E. (2011). Role reversal in global finance. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Papers, 17497.

Prasad, E., Rajan, R., and Subramanian, A. (2007). Foreign capital and economic growth. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Papers, 13619.

Prasad, E., Rogoff, K., Wei, S., and Kose, M. (2004). Effects on financial globalization on developing countries: Some empirical evidence. IMF Occasional paper, 220.

Stiglitz, J. (2000). Capital market liberalization, economic growth, and instability. World development, 28(6):1075–1086.

Toporowski, J. (1999). Monetary policy in an era of capital market inflation. Levy Economics Institute Working Paper 279.

Toporowski, J. (2002). The End of Finance: capital market inflation, financial derivatives and pension fund capitalism, volume 25. Routledge.

Toporowski, J. (2005). Theories of financial disturbance: an examination of critical theories of finance from Adam Smith to the present day. Edward Elgar Pub.

Toporowski, J. (2008). The kalecki-steindl theory of financial fragility. In "Crisis in Financialisation" Conference at the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London, May, volume 30.

Toporowski, J. (2009). The economics and culture of financial inflation. Competition & Change, 13(2):145–156.

Toporowski, J. (2010). A theory of capital rationing. SOAS Department of Economics Working Papers, (166).

Wilson, D. and Purushothaman, R. (2003). Dreaming with the BRICs: The path to 2050. Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper, 99.

Downloads

Published

2015-07-22

How to Cite

Bonizzi, B. (2015). Capital Market Inflation in Emerging Markets: the Cases of Brazil and South Korea. PSL Quarterly Review, 68(273). https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643/11989

Issue

Section

Articles