Recent forecasts of the future growth of population in Italy

Abstract

The recent forecasts by both international and Italian students of future Italian population growth are critically described and commented on in the first part of the present article. In the second part, the author compares the probable future trend of the population in Italy, considered as a whole, with that of other European countries. She points out that, according to the most esteemed forecasts, the differences still existing between their respective rates of growth will further decline, and it may be presumed that the several countries will become stationary at about the same time. But, as noted, different conclusions are reached for South Italy, whose demographic vitality leads one to expect a marked growth and, consequently, a favourable composition as regards age groups for many decades to come.

JEL: J11