Growth and stagnation in a dual economy: The case of Brazil


  • Carmem Feijó
  • Marcos Tostes Lamônica
  • Sergiany Da Silva Lima



Structural change, cumulative causation, dual economy, new developmentalism, Brazil


The aim of the present article is to further develop the line of research initiated by Oreiroet al. (2019) by expanding the database used to calculate the EQI and the EQG, but also to control the effects of variables other than the EQG, such as the amount of capital per worker, over the PCIG and to assess the impact of the determinants of the EQG, considering both price and non-price factors. Following Tregenna and Andreoni (2020), the EQI will be redefined as the ratio between the share of the workforce in the sectors of high technological intensity with respect to the share of the workforce in the sectors of medium and low technological intensity. The EQGwill then be used as an independent variable to explain the behavior of the PCIG of a sample of 47 developing countries in Latin America, the Caribbean, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia from 2001 to 2014.



JEL codes: O11, O14, O17, F43, F45


Argyrous, G. (1996), “Cumulative Causation and Industrial evolution: Kaldor’s four stages of industrializations as an evolutionary model”, Journal of Economic Issue, 30 (1), pp. 97-119.

Bai J. (1997), “Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time”, Econometric Theory, 13 (3), pp. 315-352.

Bai J. and Perron P. (1998), “Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes”, Econometrica, 66 (1), pp. 47-78.

Bresser-Pereira L.C. (2018), “Macroeconomia Novo-Desenvolvimentista”, in Feijo C. and Araújo E. (eds.) (2019), Macroeconomia Moderna: as lições de Keynes para economias em desenvolvimento (vol. 1, pp. 45-55), Rio de Janeiro: Elsevier.

Bresser-Pereira L.C., Oreiro J.L. and Marconi N. (2014), Developmental macroeconomics: new developmentalism as a growth strategy, London: Routledge.

Carneiro R. (2008), “Globalização e Inconversibilidade monetária”, Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 28 (4), pp. 539-556.

Castro A.B and Souza F.E.P. (2008), A Economia Brasileira em Marcha Forçada, Rio de Janeiro: Paz e Terra.

Catela E.Y., Cimoli M. and Porcile G. (2012), “Productivity and structural heterogeneity in the Brazilian manufacturing sector: trends and determinants”, LEM Working Paper Series, n. 2012/20, Pisa (Italy): Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies.

Cimoli M. and Porcile G. (2013), “Tecnología, heterogeneidade y crecimento: uma cajá de herramientas estruturalistas”, CEPAL – Serie Desarrollo Productivo, n. 194, Santiago de Chile: Publicación de las Naciones Unidas.

Dixon R. and Thirlwall A.P. (1975), “A Model of Regional Growth Rate differences on Kaldorian Lines”, Oxford Economic Papers, 27 (2), pp. 201-214.

Feijo C. and Lamonica M.T. (2013), “A Kaldorian approach to catch up and structural change in economies with high degree of heterogeneity”, PSL Quarterly Review, 66 (265), pp. 107-135.

Feijo C. and Lamonica M.T. (2019), “Policy space in a financially integrated world: the Brazilian case in the 2000s”, Panoeconomicus, 66 (1), pp. 51-67.

Ferrari Filho F. and Fonseca P.C.D. (2015), “Which developmentalism? A Keynesian-institutionalist proposal”, Review of Keynesian Economics, 3 (1), pp. 90-107.

Gramkow C. and Gordon J.L. (2014), “Aspectos estruturais da economia brasileira: heterogeneidade estrutural e inserção externa de 1996 a 2009”, Cadernos do Desenvolvimento, 9 (15), pp. 35-61.

Kaldor N. (1955-56), “Alternative Theories of Distribution”, Review of Economics Studies, 23 (2), pp. 83-100.

Kaldor N. (1957), “A Model of Economic Growth”. Economic Journal, 67 (268), pp. 591-624.

Kaldor N. ([1966] 1978), Causes of the Slow Rate of Economic Growth of the United Kingdom. An Inaugural Lecture, in Collected Economic Essays, vol. 5: Further Essays on Economic Theory, London: Duckworth.

Kaldor N. (1970), “The case for regional policies”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 17 (3), pp. 337-348.

Kaldor N. and Mirrlees J.A. (1962), “A New Model of Economic Growth”, Review of Economic Studies, 29 (3), pp. 174-192.

León-Ledesma M.A. (2002), “Accumulation, innovation and catching-up: an extended cumulative growth model”. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 26 (2), pp. 201-216.

Liu J., Wu S. and Zidek J.V. (1997), “On Segmented Multivariate Regression”, Statistica Sinica, 7 (2), 497-525.

Maia B.A.A. (2020), “Há industrialização no Brasil? Um estudo da abordagem clássica e de análises alternativas entre 1998 e 2014”, Economia e Sociedade, 29 (2), pp. 549-579.

McCombie J.S.L. and Thirlwall A.P. (1994), Economic Growth and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint, New York: St Martin’s Press.

Nassif A., Feijo C. and Araujo E. (2015), “Structural Change and Economic Development: is Brazil catching up or falling behind?”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 39 (5), pp. 1307-1332.

Nassif A., Feijo C. and Araujo E. (2017), “Un modelo estructuralista-keynesiano de determinación del tipo cambio real “óptimo” para el desarrollo económico brasileño: 1999-2015”, Revista de la CEPAL (ONLINE), 123, pp. 201-223.

Nassif A., Bresser-Pereira L.C and Feijo C. (2018), “The Case for Reindustrialisation in Developing Countries: Towards the Connection between the Macroeconomic Regime and the Industrial Policy in Brazil”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 42 (2), pp. 355-381.

Nassif A., Feijo C. and Araujo E. (2020a), “Macroeconomic policies in Brazil before and after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis: Brazilian Policy-Makers Still Trapped in the New Macroeconomic Consensus Guidelines”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 44 (4), pp. 749-779.

Nassif A., Morandi L., Araújo E. and Feijo C. (2020b), “Economic development and stagnation in Brazil (1950-2011)”; Structural Change and Dynamics Economics, 53, pp. 1-15.

Oreiro J.L. and Feijo C. (2010), “Desindustrialização: Conceituação, Causas, Efeitos e o Caso Brasileiro”. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 30 (2), pp. 219-232.

Palma G. (2005), “Four sources of de-industrialisation and a new concept of the Dutch disease”, in Ocampo J.A. (ed.), Beyond Reforms (pp. 71-116), Palo Alto: Stanford University Press.

Paula L.F., Fritz B., Prates D.M. (2017), “Keynes at the Periphery: currency hierarchy and challenges for economic policy in emerging economies”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 40 (2), pp. 183-202.

Saboia J. (2014), “Baixo crescimento econômico e melhora do Mercado de trabalho – Como entender a aparente contradiçao?”, Estudos Avançados, 28 (81), pp. 115-125.

Setterfield M. (2002), “A model of Kaldorian Traverse: cumulative causation, structural change and evolutionary hysteresis”, in Setterfield M. (ed.), The Economic of Demand-Led Growth: challenging the supply-side vision of the long run (pp. 215-234), Cheltenham (UK) and Northampton (MA, USA): Edward Elgar.

Rodriguez O. (2009), O Estruturalismo Latino-Americano, Rio de Janeiro: Civilização Brasileira.

Targetti F. and Foti A. (1997), “Growth and productivity: a model of cumulative growth and catching-up”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 21 (1), pp. 27-43.

Thirlwall, A.P. (1979). “The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rates”, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, 32 (128), pp. 45-53.

Wells J. (1974), “Distribuição de rendimentos, crescimento e a estrutura de demanda no Brasil na década de 60”, Revista de Administração de Empresa, 14 (2), pp. 21-44.

Yao Yi-Ching (1988), “Estimating the Number of Change-points via Schwarz’ Criterion”, Statistics & Probability Letters, 6, pp. 181-189.


Additional Files



How to Cite

Feijó, C., Lamônica, M. . T., & Da Silva Lima, S. (2022). Growth and stagnation in a dual economy: The case of Brazil. PSL Quarterly Review, 75(301).