Unit labor costs and inflation in the OECD countries

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643/18228

Keywords:

inflation, COVID-19 pandemic, OECD countries, panel data models

Abstract

This paper investigates the drivers of inflation in 34 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries from the first quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2022. Using an amplified price equation and two different panel data econometric techniques, we assess the impact of seven key variables on the price level. In this context, unit labor costs are a major source of price instability, whereas massive cash transfers generate demand-pull inflation. Moreover, higher financial costs are potentially inflationary, debt/contract relief policies are deflationary, and pandemic-related variables deliver mixed effects on prices. These findings have clear-cut policy implications.   

References

Abdelkafi I., Loukil S. and Romdhane Y. (2023), “Economic uncertainty during COVID-19 pandemic in Latin America and Asia”, Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 14 (2), pp. 1582-1601-. Available online.

Akbulaev N., Mammadov I. and Aliyev V. (2020), “Economic impact of COVID-19”, SYLWAN, 164 (5), pp. 113-126. Available online.

Agur I. (2022), “Government finance by central banks and inflation expectations at the onset of the COVID pandemic”, Applied Economics Letters, 31 (2), pp. 107-112. Available online.

Antonescu D. (2020), “Supporting small and medium size enterprises through the COVID-19 crises in Romania”, Central European Journal of Geography and Sustainable Development, 2 (1), pp. 38-57. Available online.

Apergis E. and Apergis N. (2021), “Inflation expectations, volatility and COVID-19: evidence from the US inflation swap rates”, Applied Economics Letters, 28 (15), pp. 1327-1331. Available online.

Arellano M. and Bond S. (1991), “Some test of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations”, The Review of Economic Studies, 58 (2), pp. 277-297. Available online.

Baltagi B. (2008), Econometric analysis of panel data, Chichester, West Sussex (UK): John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Barišić P. and Kovač T. (2022), “The effectiveness of the fiscal policy response to COVID-19 through the lens of short and long run labor market effects of COVID-19 measures”, Public Sector Economics, 46 (1), pp. 43-81. Available online.

Barlow P., van Schalkwyk M., McKee M., Labonté R. and Stuckler D. (2021), “COVID-19 and the collapse of global trade: building an effective public health response”, The Lancet Planetary Health, 5 (2), pp. 102-107. Available online.

Barth M.J. and Ramey V.A. (2001), “The cost channel of monetary transmission”, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, 16, pp. 199-256. Available online.

Beck N. and Katz J.N. (1995), “What to do (and not to do) with time-series cross-section data”, The American Political Science Review, 89 (3), pp. 634-647. Available online.

Céspedes L., Chang R. and Velasco A. (2020), “Macroeconomic policy responses to a pandemic”, in Djankov S. and Panizza U. (eds.), COVID-19 in Developing Economies (pp. 175-186), London: Center for Economic Policy Research. Available online.

Cheng N. and Bang Y. (2021), “A comment on the practice of the Arellano-Bond/Blundell-Bond generalized method of moments estimator in IS research”, Communications of the Association for Information Systems, 48 (1), pp. 423-442. Available online.

Cherkasky M. (2022), “Inflación global en el bienio 2021-2022 y su impacto en América Latina”, Serie Estudios y Perspectivas-Officina de la CEPAL en la Argentina, no. 55, Buenos Aires: CEPAL. Available online.

Christensen J., Gamble J. and Zhu S. (2020), “Coronavirus and the Risk of Deflation”, FRBSF Economic Letter, 2020-11, May 11, pp. 1-5. Available online.

Clarida R., Duygan-Bump B. and Scotti C. (2021), “The COVID-19 crisis and the Federal Reserve's policy response”, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, n. 2021-035, Washington (DC): Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Available online.

Cucciniello M.C., Deleidi M. and Levrero E.S. (2022), “The cost channel of monetary policy: The case of the United States in the period 1959-2018”, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 61, pp. 409-433. Available online.

de Soyres F., Santacreu A. and Young H. (2022), “Fiscal policy and excess inflation during Covid-19: A cross-country view”, FED Notes, July 15, Washington (DC): Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Available online.

Devereux M., Güçeri İ, Simmler M. and Tam E. (2020), “Discretionary fiscal responses to the COVID-19 pandemic”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 36 (S1), pp. S225-S241. Available online.

Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (2020), “Latin America and the Caribbean and the COVID-19 pandemic: Economic and social effects”. Available online.

Erdoğan S., Yildirim D.Ç. and Gedikli A. (2020), “Dynamics and determinants of inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic period in European countries: A spatial panel data analysis”, Duzce Medical Journal, 22 (S1) (special issue), pp. 61-67. Available online.

Gharehgozli O. and Lee S. (2022), “Money supply and inflation after COVID-19”, Economies, 10 (5), pp. 1-14. Available online.

Gibson A.H. (1923), “The future course of high-class investment values”, Banker’s Magazine, 115, pp. 15-34.

Gordon R. and Stock J. (1998), “Foundations of the Goldilocks economy: Supply shocks and the time-varying NAIRU”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, pp. 297-346. Available online.

Greene W. (2008), Econometric Analysis, 6th ed., Upper Saddle River (NJ): Pearson-Prentice Hall.

Hale T., Angrist N. , Goldszmidt R., Kira B., Petherick A. , Phillips T., Webster S., Cameron-Blake E. , Hallas L., Majumdar S. and Tatlow H. (2021), “A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker)”, Nature Human Behaviour, 5 (4), pp. 529-538. Available online.

Hayat M., Ghulam H., Batool M., Naeem M., Ejaz A., Spulbar C. and Birau R. (2021), “Investigating the causal linkages among inflation, interest rate, and economic growth in Pakistan under the influence of COVID-19 pandemic: A wavelet transformation approach”, Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 14 (6), art. 277. Available online.

Hevia C. and Neumeyer A. (2020), “A conceptual framework for analyzing the economic impact of COVID-19 and its policy implications”, UNDP LAC COVID-19 Policy Documents Series, no. 1, New York: United Nation Development Programme – Latin America and the Caribbean. Available online.

Jordà Ò., Liu C., Nechio F. and Rivera-Reyes F. (2022), “Why Is US Inflation Higher than in Other Countries?”, FRBSF Economic Letter, 2022-07, 28 March, San Francisco (CA): Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Available online.

Keynes J.M. (1930), A Treatise on Money, London: Macmillan.

Kliesen K.L. and Wheelock D.C. (2023), “The COVID-19 Pandemic and Inflation: Lessons from major US Wars”, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 105 (4), pp. 1-27. Available online.

Kmenta J. (1986), Elements of Econometrics, Ann Arbor (MI): University of Michigan Press.

Maital S. and Barzani E. (2020), “The global economic impact of COVID-19: A summary of research”, Samuel Neaman Institute for National Policy Research, March. Available online.

Makin A. and Layton A. (2021), “The global fiscal response to COVID-19: Risks and repercussions”, Economic Analysis and Policy, 69 (C), pp. 340-349. Available online.

Meyer B., Prescott B. and Sheng X. (2022), “The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business expectations”, International Journal of Forecasting, 38 (2), pp. 529-544. Available online.

Niedźwiedzińska J. (2021), “Initial monetary policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic in inflation targeting economies”, Gospodarka Narodowa, The Polish Journal of Economics, 308 (4), pp. 125-165. Available online.

Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker Coding Interpretation Guide (2022). Available online (date of access: 20 November 2022).

Rizvi S.A.R., Sharma S.S. and Juhro S.M. (2023), “Demystifying COVID-19 policy actions: The case of inflation control in ASEAN”, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 83, pp. 1-9. Available online.

Roodman D. (2009), “A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 71 (1), pp. 135-158. Available online.

Santacreu A.M. and LaBelle J. (2022), “Global supply chain disruptions and inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic”, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 104 (2), pp. 1-14. Available online.

Sargent T.J. (1973), “Interest rates and prices in the long run: A study of the Gibson Paradox”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 5 (1), pp. 385-449. Available online.

Shapiro A.H. (2020), “Monitoring the Inflationary Effects of COVID-19”, FRBSF Economic Letter, 2020-24, 24 August, San Francisco (CA): Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Available online.

Shiller R.J. and Siegel J.J. (1977), “The Gibson paradox and historical movements in real interest rates”, Journal of Political Economy, 85 (5), pp. 891-907. Available online.

Susskind D. and Vines D. (2020), “The economics of the COVID-19 pandemic: an assessment”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 36 (1), pp. S1-S13. Available online.

Tauber K. and Van Zandweghe W. (2021), “Why has durable goods spending been so strong during the COVID-19 pandemic?”, Economic Commentary, 16, Cleveland (OH): Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Available online.

Thirlwall A.P. (1974), Inflation, Saving and Growth in Developing Economies, London and Basingstoke UK: Macmillan.

Tooke T. (1838), A History of Prices, and of the State of the Circulation, from 1793 to 1837, London (UK): Longman, Orme, Brown, Green, and Longman’s.

Victor V., Karakunnel J., Loganathan S. and Meyer D. (2021), “From a recession to the COVID-19 pandemic: Inflation-unemployment comparison between the UK and India”, Economies, 9 (2), pp. 1-19. Available online.

Windmeijer F. (2005), “A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators”, Journal of Econometrics, 126 (1), pp. 25-51. Available online.

Yeh S.-S. (2021), “Tourism recovery strategy against COVID-19 pandemic”, Tourism Recreation Research, 46 (2), pp. 188-194. Available online.

Downloads

Published

2024-04-08

How to Cite

Cuevas Ahumada, V. M., & Perrotini Hernández , I. (2024). Unit labor costs and inflation in the OECD countries. PSL Quarterly Review, 77(308), 3–22. https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643/18228

Issue

Section

Articles