On the theory of interest rate policy

Authors

  • Heinz-Peter Spahn

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643/9951

Keywords:

Interest Rates, Interest, Monetary Policy, Monetary, Policy

Abstract

A new consensus in the theory of monetary policy has been reached pointing to the pivotal role of interest rates that are set in accordance with central banks' reaction functions. The decisive criterion of assessing the Taylor rule, inflation and monetary targeting is not the macrotheoretic foundation of these concepts. They serve as "languages" coordinating heterogeneous beliefs among policy makers and private agents, and should also allow rule-based discretionary policies when markets are in need of leadership. Contrary to the ECB dogma, the Fed is right to have an eye on the risks of inflation and unemployment.

 

JEL Codes: E43, E58, E52

References

ALLSOPP, C. and D. VINES (2000), "The assessment – Macroeconomic policy", Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol. 16, pp. 1-32.

ALMEIDA, A. and C.A.E. GOODHART (1998), "Does the adoption of inflation targets affect central bank behaviour?", in Gobalization and Stable Financial Markets, Special Issue of Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, pp. 19-107.

ALVAREZ, F. et al. (2001), "Interest rates and inflation", American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, vol. 91, pp. 219-25.

BALL, L. (1999), "Aggregate demand and long-run unemployment", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol. 2, pp. 189-251.

BERNANKE, B.S. and I. MIHOV (1997), "What does the Bundesbank target?", European Economic Review, vol. 41, pp. 1025-53.

BERNANKE, B. and M. WOODFORD (1997), "Inflation forecasts and monetary policy", Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 29, pp. 653-84.

BLANCHARD, O.J. (1991), "Wage bargaining and unemployment persistence", Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 23, pp. 277-92.

BLINDER, A.S. (1997), "What central bankers could learn from academics – and viceversa", Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 3-19.

BLINDER, A.S. (1998), Central Banking in Theory and Practice, MIT Press, Cambridge, London.

BRAINARD, W. (1967), "Uncertainty and the effectiveness of policy", American Economic Review, vol. 57, pp. 411-25.

BUITER, W. (1999), "Alice in euroland", Journal of Common Market Studies, vol. 37, pp. 181-209.

CAPLIN, A. and J. LEAHY (1996), "Monetary policy as a process of search", American Economic Review, vol. 86, pp. 689-702.

CLARIDA, R. et al. (1999), "The science of monetary policy – a new Keynesian perspective", Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 37, pp. 1661-707.

DAVIDSON, P. (1988), "Financial markets, investment and employment", in J.A. Kregel et al. eds, Barriers to Full Employment, Macmillan, Basingstoke, London, pp. 73-92.

DE GRAUWE, P. (1996), International Money, 2nd ed., Oxford University Press, Oxford.

DEUTSCHE BUNDESBANK (1999), "Taylor interest rate and monetary conditions index", Monthly Report, April, pp. 47-63.

ECB – EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (2000), "The two pillars of the ECB's monetary strategy", Monthly Report, November, pp. 37-48.

ECB – EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (2001), "Monetary policy-making under uncertainty", Monthly Report, January, pp. 43-55.

ECB – EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (2001), Press conference, 30.8.2001.

EMMINGER, O. (1986), D-Mark, Dollar, Währungskrisen, DeutscheVerlags-Anstalt, Stuttgart.

GOODFRIEND, M. (1991), "Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy", Carnegie-Rochester Series on Public Policy, vol. 34, Amsterdam et al., pp. 7-30.

GOODHART, C.A.E. (1997), "Why do the monetary authorities smooth interest rates?", in S. Collignon ed., European Monetary Policy, Pinter, London, Washington, pp. 119-74.

GOODHART, C.A.E. (1999), "Central bankers and uncertainty", Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, vol. 39, pp. 102-21.

GOODHART, C.A.E. and H. HUANG (1998), "Time inconsistency in a model with lags, persistence, and overlapping wage contracts", Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 50, pp. 378-96.

HAGEN, J. VON and M. BRÜCKNER (2001), "Monetary policy in unknown territory – The European Central Bank in the early years", Zentrum für Europäische Integrationsforschung, Working Paper, Nr. B 18, Bonn.

ISSING, O. (1999), "The Eurosystem – transparent and accountable or 'Willem in euroland'", Journal of Common Market Studies, vol. 37, pp. 503-19.

KEYNES, J.M. (1930), A Treatise on Money, vol. 2, Macmillan, London.

KING, M. (1997), "The inflation target five years on".

KRUGMAN, P.R. (1989), "The case for stabilizing exchange rates", Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol. 5, pp. 61-72.

KRUGMAN, P.R. (2000), "How complicated does the model have to be?", Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol. 16, pp. 33-42.

LEON-LEDESMA, M. and A.P. THIRLWALL (2000), "Is the natural rate of growth exogenous?", Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, no. 215, pp. 433-45.

MANKIW, N.G. (2001), "The inexorable and mysterious tradeoff between inflation and unemployment", Economic Journal, vol. 111, pp. C45-C61.

ORPHANIDES, A. (2000), "The quest for prosperity without inflation", ECB Working Paper, no. 15.

PILL, H. (2001), Summary "Monetary analysis – tools and applications", in H.-J. Klöckers and C. Willeke eds, Monetary Analysis – Tools and Applications, European Central Bank, Frankfurt, pp. 11-30.

REMSPERGER, H. (1998), "Geheimnis und Transparenz in der Geldpolitik", in Deutsche Bundesbank, hrsg. von, Auszüge aus Presseartikeln, Nr. 74, Frankfurt, 16.12.98, pp. 1-7.

ROGERS, C. and T.K. RYMES (2000), "The disappearance of Keynes's nascent theory of banking between the Treatise and the General Theory", in J. Smithin ed., What Is Money?, Routledge, London, New York, pp. 257-69.

ROMER, D. (2000), "Keynesian macroeconomics without the LM curve", Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 149-69.

SIEVERT, O. (1995), "Grundzüge der Bundesbankpolitik", in Deutsche Bundesbank, hrsg. von, Auszüge aus Presseartikeln, Nr. 24, Frankfurt, 28.3.95, pp. 3-9.

SOLOW, R.M. (1998), "How cautious must the Fed be?" in R.M. Solow and J.B. Taylor eds, Inflation,Unemployment, and Monetary Policy, MIT Press, Cambridge, London, pp. 1-28.

SPAHN, H.P. (1999), "Central bankers, games and markets", in W. Filc and C. Köhlereds, Macroeconomic Causes of Unemployment – Diagnosis and Policy Recommendations, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, pp. 379-403.

SPAHN, H.P. (2001), From Gold to Euro – On Monetary Theory and the History of Currency Systems, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.

STIGLITZ, J.E. (1997), "Reflections on the natural rate hypothesis", Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 3-10.

SVENSSON, L.E.O. (1999), "Monetary policy issues for the eurosystem", CarnegieRochester Conference Series on Public Policy, vol. 51, Amsterdam et al., pp. 79-136.

TAYLOR, J.B. (1993), "Discretion versus policy rules in practice", Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, vol. 39, Amsterdam et al., pp. 195-214.

TAYLOR, J.B. (2000), "Alternative views of the monetary transmission mechanism – what difference do they make for monetary policy?", Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol. 16, pp. 60-73.

WINKLER, B. (2000), "Which kind of transparency? On the need for clarity in monetary policy-making", ECB Working Paper, no. 26, Frankfurt.

WOODFORD, M. (2001), "The Taylor rule and optimal monetary policy", American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, vol. 91, pp. 219-25.

Downloads

Published

2012-04-19

How to Cite

Spahn, H.-P. (2012). On the theory of interest rate policy. PSL Quarterly Review, 54(219). https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643/9951

Issue

Section

Articles