Psychology Hub

Unraveling Uncertainty: Exploring Cognitive Closure, Information Processing, and the Multifaceted Nature of Certainty Motivation in the Tapestry of Beliefs and Ideologies

Małgorzata Kossowska — 2024-09-19

In this paper dedicated to our esteemed colleagues Lucia Mannetti, we will delve into the connection between uncertainty, particularly as it manifests in the need for cognitive closure, and its influence on cognitive functioning, social perspectives, and ideologies. The paper will commence by providing a definition of uncertainty and then delve into the cognitive coping strategies employed to alleviate its impact. Additionally, we will incorporate empirical findings demonstrating that the experience of uncertainty does not always lead to simplistic and biased information processing. Departing from conventional research paradigms, we will underscore instances where individuals, driven by a desire for certainty, engage in nuanced, contemplative, and receptive information processing. The paper will also examine the strategies employed to navigate uncertainty through the beliefs, worldviews, and ideologies adopted by individuals. We believe this paper contributes to the ongoing discourse on how human psychology interacts with socio-cultural dynamics, a dialogue in which Lucia Mannetti has long been actively engaged.

Impact of Need for Cognitive Closure on Achievement Goals and Academic Performance: A Study in Upper Secondary Schools

Mara Marini — 2024-09-19

The present research investigated the relationships between Need for Cognitive Closure (NfCC), achievement goals and academic performance in a sample of secondary school students. The main aim of this study was to provide a scientific contribution to an area of research that is still largely unexplored, namely the role of NfCC in students’ school experiences. The results of this study showed that NfCC has a positive relationship with both performance-approach and performance-avoidance goals, although the relationship is stronger for the latter. Furthermore, a positive relationship emerged between NfCC and mastery-avoidance goals, whereas no significant relationship was found between NfCC and mastery-approach goals. These findings suggest that students driven by NfCC are more motivated to avoid academic failure than to pursue their educational goals actively. Interestingly, NfCC had a direct and indirect negative relationship with students’ academic performance through achievement goals in their avoidance dimensions. Similarly, NfCC was positively related to students’ academic performance through performance-approach goals. The results of this study require further investigation. However, this research provides important insights into the individual mechanisms underlying why students engage in school and defines NfCC as a potential factor in explaining students’ motivation and academic adjustment.

Expecting the Worst: Why Uncertainty is Scary (But Often Isn’t)

Arie Kruglanski — 2024-09-19

The present article describes and provides empirical support for a novel theory of affective reactions to uncertain situations, from which we derive five interrelated hypotheses. The theory holds that people’s past experiences, both long- and short-term, inform their expectations for future outcomes, particularly when the specific outcomes in a situation are unknown. More positive past experiences lead to positive expectations and hence positive affective reactions and approach behaviors related to uncertainty, and more negative past experiences lead to negative expectations and hence negative affective reactions and avoidance behaviors related to uncertainty. While short-term outcomes dominate future expectations in their immediate aftermath, long-term outcomes lead to more stable dispositional optimism or pessimism. In the present article, we describe how this theory explains much prior research on intolerance of uncertainty in several psychological fields, as well as how it can inform interventions aimed at attenuating the negative effects of intolerance of uncertainty, which range from anxiety disorders to involvement in violent extremist groups.

Orienting vs. multiple perspectives: Exploring the dynamics of reactions to uncertainty

Giuseppe Pantaleo — 2024-09-19

In this article, we explore the dynamics of reactions to uncertainty through the lens of a theory of orienting vs. multiple perspectives. In offering real-life examples of situations in which people have contrasting opinions and points of view on different topics, each rooted in different psychological perspectives, we illustrate how a contrasting multiplicity of viewpoints can give rise to both socially ‘disturbing’ vs. ‘appealing’ uncertainty. We then introduce the theory, outline the mechanisms of orienting vs. multiple perspectives in reacting to socially induced uncertainty, and review some representative theory-generated research illustrations showing both the denial and the acknowledgment of multiple perspectives. Next we delve into the themes of uncertainty reduction with respect to symbolic self-completion, diffusion of gratitude, position exchange, and polycultural psychology. Finally, we explore a subset of recently observed phenomena typically ascribed to ecological threats, epistemic uncertainty, and significance loss, and interpret them through the lens of the theory. These phenomena serve as further examples of the potential effects of orienting and multiple perspectives. Finally, we draw conclusions and derive implications for researchers willing to extend and apply such integrative analysis to still different social phenomena.

“Closing” on Group-Centrism: A systematic meta-analysis on the relationship between the need for cognitive closure with the binding and individualizing moral foundations

Conrad Baldner — 2024-09-19

Inspired by the career of Lucia Mannetti, we conducted meta-analyses on the correlation between the need for cognitive closure and the binding moral foundations, as an aspect of group-centrism, as well as the individualizing moral foundations, which conceptually have a less clear link to group-centrism. We included all studies, indexed in either Scopus or Google Scholar, that included correlations between three self-report measures of the need for cognitive closure with either the binding or individualizing foundations. The R packages meta, metasens, and dmetar were used to conduct meta-analyses and follow-up tests. We identified a total of 26 studies (n=7136) that included eligible measures of need for cognitive closure and the binding foundations and 23 studies (n=6441) that included eligible measures of need for cognitive closure and the individualizing foundations. After controlling for heterogeneity and small sample size effects, we observed a larger adjusted effect size for the binding foundations (r=.32 [95%CI: .26;.38]) than for the individualizing foundations (r=.13 [95%CI: .052;.219]). In general, the larger effect size for the relationship between the need for cognitive closure and the binding foundations is consistent with the literature on the need for cognitive closure and group-centrism, however the elevated effects for heterogeneity and small sample size effects for the individualizing foundations should be investigated.

Uncertainty, Group Identification and Intergroup Behavior: Positive and Negative Outcomes of how People Experience Uncertainty

Michael Hogg — 2024-09-19

Uncertainty is part of daily life, and an enduring feature of the wider world we live in. People experience and react to uncertainty in different ways, as a function of their individual preferences and the nature and context of the uncertainty. In this article I describe an uncertainty-identity theory analysis of how feelings of uncertainty, specifically self-uncertainty, shape and drive what we do, what we think, and how we feel, and ultimately affect the world we live in. Identification with distinctive groups with unambiguous and clearly defined social identities is a very effective way to reduce self-related uncertainty, and thus delivers all the benefits of group identification and cohesive groups for individuals, groups and society. However, when people feel they do not have the cognitive, social and material resources to reduce uncertainty then uncertainty is experienced as an overwhelming threat that is to be avoided, rather than sought out as an exhilarating challenge to be easily resolved. Identification to reduce uncertainty experienced as a threat can generate an array of negative outcomes associated with extremism, populism, autocratic leadership, identity echo chambers, suppression of diversity, and so forth.

Managing COVID-19 Induced Distress in Italy: The Role of Perceived Spiritual Support

Ankica Kosic — 2024-09-19

This research wanted to explore if perceived spiritual support (PSS) moderates the link between COVID-19 concerns and psychological distress. Two surveys were conducted in Italy in 2021, involving 218 participants in the first study and 230 participants in the second. Participants completed questionnaires assessing COVID-19 concerns, perceived economic difficulties, perceived spiritual support, and psychological distress. Multiple regression models were performed in both studies to test our hypotheses. In both studies the results demonstrated that the association between COVID-19 concerns and distress was more pronounced among individuals with low PSS compared to those with high PSS. These findings suggest that relying on spiritual support has assisted individuals in managing fear during the pandemic and mitigating distress.

Navigating Uncertainty: the importance of mindfulness for the mental health of volunteer rescuers involved in the Ukrainian humanitarian emergency.

Chiara Bernuzzi — 2024-09-19

Volunteer rescuers provide a crucial support to the population during emergencies. Previous literature demonstrated that the involvement in humanitarian crises, such as the one arising from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, exposes individuals to emotional and cognitive stressors, leading to detrimental effects on their mental health. Hence, it is of the utmost importance to identify factors that can shield them from developing adverse health-related outcomes. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to investigate whether mindfulness would be related to emotional exhaustion and post-traumatic stress and whether this relationship would be mediated by intolerance of uncertainty. A total of 210 volunteers engaged in the Ukrainian humanitarian crisis completed questionnaires measuring mindfulness, intolerance of uncertainty, emotional exhaustion, and post-traumatic stress. Mediation analyses revealed that mindfulness was negatively related to emotional exhaustion and post-traumatic stress, both directly and indirectly through the mediation of intolerance of uncertainty. By uncovering the protective role of mindfulness, this study makes a valuable contribution to the extant literature on the psychological well-being of volunteers. From a practical standpoint, volunteering associations should provide their volunteers with training, including mindfulness sessions, in addition to offering psychological support services and debriefing sessions following their involvement in emergencies.

Reactions to Uncertainty: Exploring the Interplay Between Intolerance of Uncertainty, Attachment Styles, and Psychological Symptoms

Marco Lauriola — 2024-09-19

This study investigated the interplay between Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU), attachment styles, and mental health, using network analysis on a community sample of 1121 individuals (450 men, 654 women, 17 unreported gender), aged 20-76 years (M = 36.8; SD = 12.4). Participants completed various instruments, including the Intolerance of Uncertainty Inventory, Experiences in Close Relationships-Revised, Attachment Style Questionnaire, State Adult Attachment Measure, and a 27-item Symptoms Checklist. Findings reveal a complex network with a central cluster of maladaptive IU beliefs. Attachment styles, significantly shaped responses to uncertainty, especially doubt, threat overestimation, and reassurance seeking, while avoidant attachment linked to uncertainty control, and avoidance, symptoms of mistrust and social phobia. Secure attachment offers a protective indirect influence. Central nodes in the network, like Worry, Reassurance Seeking, and Doubt, connect closely to core IU beliefs and depressive symptoms, suggesting them as potential intervention targets. Addressing these maladaptive reactions to uncertainty, particularly in individuals with insecure attachment, could mitigate the co-occurrence of IU beliefs and attachment styles, enhancing coping mechanisms in daily life. This research enriches the understanding of the dynamics between attachment styles, IU, and mental health.

Populism and Conspiracism: Challenging or Preserving the System to Live in a Meaningful World?

Valerio Pellegrini — 2024-09-19

The present paper explores the relationships between the meaningfulness of the world, system justification, populist attitudes, and conspiracy beliefs. Associations were investigated on a sample of 768 Italian participants performing a path analysis model. Results highlighted a positive association between the meaningfulness of the world and system-justifying tendencies. System justification in turn related negatively to both populist attitudes and conspiracy beliefs. Meaningfulness of the world was thus associated with both populist attitudes and conspiracy beliefs in a negative indirect fashion channeled by system-justifying beliefs. This yielded a suppression pattern where system justification overturned the direct positive relationship between the meaningfulness of the world and both populist attitudes and conspiracy beliefs. These findings contribute to a nuanced understanding of how individual cognitions, system justification, political ideologies, and conspiracy beliefs intersect, suggesting a potential dual role of the meaningfulness of the world in shaping political attitudes and preferences. The paper concludes with a discussion of limitations and avenues for future research.

Migrants’ regrets: The role of regulatory focuses, social comparison, discrimination, and uncertainty aversion

Ankica Kosic — 2024-09-19

In this study, we examined regrets of migrants and focused on three factors that may enhance regret about the decision to emigrate: regulatory focus, social comparison with co-nationals in the country of origin, and perceived discrimination.

The study involved 196 first generation immigrants in the UK originated from different countries. A questionnaire was used containing scales measuring individual’s regulatory focus, social comparison with co-nationals in the country of origin, perceived discrimination, feeling of uncertainty, and regret.

The more prevention-focused migrants are, the more they regret their decision to emigrate. Furthermore, upward social comparison with co-nationals in the home country and perceived discrimination are related to stronger regret. Basically, the more people negatively compared themselves with co-nationals in the country of origin, the more they experienced regret about their decision to emigrate. In addition, we found some interaction effects. The relationship between prevention focus (vs. promotion focus) and regret is stronger for migrants who make negative comparisons with co-nationals in the country of origin, perceive that they are discriminated against, and who are more averse towards uncertainty.

Managing uncertainty in oncology visits: communication practices with ethnically diverse patients in the Italian medical context

Francesca Alby — 2024-09-19

Introduction: In the context of a set of oncological visits carried out by one doctor with Italian and migrant patients, this study focuses on how the oncologist refers to, and how he manages, information, which qualify some events as uncertain or not fully predictable. Examples include the patient’s advantage or disadvantage to opt for a certain treatment, the chance to recover from cancer or, on the contrary, the risk of cancer recurrence, as well as the risk to undergo certain side effects of the treatment.

Method: Drawing on results obtained by previous coding of 19 videorecorded doctor-patient consultations with native Italian patients and migrant patients, the study applies Conversation Analysis to analyze two single contrastive cases, respectively, with an Italian patient and a Ukraine patient.

Results: Analyses reveal that, however the oncologist’s communication is accompanied in both cases by hedging strategies, uncertainty embedded in cancer issues and particularly, in cancer treatment is discussed in much different way in the case of the Italian and the migrant patient. While the Italian patient is addressed with elaborated and detailed information, cast as objects of considered assessment by both the doctor and the patient, the Ukraine patient is addressed with simpler and generic formulations of uncertainty and eventually offered more constrained treatment options.

Conclusions: The findings emphasize the importance of exploring the oncologists’ views and perceptions about matters such as: the significance of shared decision making (SDM) in their own practice, the role of the patient’s cultural backgrounds in communicating oncological information, uncertainty and tolerance of ambiguity in the relationship with the patient.

The Role of Uncertainty, Proactive and Preventive Advertising Messages During the COVID-19 Pandemic: a Preliminary Study

Alessandro Biraglia — 2024-09-19

Uncertainty permeates human existence and often dictates individuals’ perception, actions, and decisions. Such condition is often exacerbated by external factors and Global events like financial, geopolitical, and health related crises. While research has unraveled the power that public communications can have in reducing uncertainty, little is known on how more commercial messages (for example advertising campaigns) can effectively address and communicate during such crises. The results of a preliminary study conducted with real advertising campaigns during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic show how individuals react more positively to an advert constructed on a proactive message (aimed at empowering the individual) than a preventive message (aimed at protecting the individual). Together with discussing the results, the authors suggest potential avenues for future research.

Navigating Uncertainty: How War and COVID-19 threats shape populist sentiment through Need for Cognitive Closure

Erica Molinario — 2024-09-19

Social crises and threatening situations can undermine self-certainty (Hogg et al., 2010) leading individuals to seek self-affirming means such as subscribing to belief systems and ideologies that are unambiguous, all-encompassing, and explanatory (Hogg, 2014) such as populism. In two cross-sectional datasets collected in Italy one year apart, we tested the indirect effect of different kinds of threats (i.e., threats related to COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine Conflict) on populist attitudes through Need for Cognitive Closure (Webster & Kruglanski, 1994, NFCC). In 2022 (N = 1668), we found that both the perceived threat posed by COVID-19 and the threat posed by the Russia-Ukraine Conflict was positively related to NFCC, which in turn was positively related to high levels of populist attitudes. When controlling for the indirect effect of NFCC, COVID-19 threat still held a significant direct effect on populist attitudes, suggesting a partial mediation. The effect of the threat related to the ongoing war on populist attitudes was totally mediated by NFCC. In 2023 (N = 1152), similarly to what we found in the data collected in 2022, the effect of the COVID-19 threat on populist attitudes was partially mediated by NFCC. Whereas the effect of the threat posed by the war was not mediated by NFCC, but directly and positively linked to populist attitudes. Our findings highlighted how populism serves an explanatory function and sense-making when uncertainty arouses from threatening circumstances. Moreover, they underscore the importance of considering contextual variations and distinct threat types when exploring the dynamics of threat perception, and cognitive processes such as perception of uncertainty, and populist attitudes. The results are discussed in light of the relevant literature on threats and the circumstances at the time of the data collections.

Invited Editors’ Note for the Special Issue in honour of Lucia Mannetti on: “Reactions to uncertainty”

Antonio Pierro — 2024-09-19