Una rivisitazione delle teorie di Modigliani sulla finanza (A Reappraisal of Modgliani's Finance Theories)

Authors

  • Terenzio Cozzi

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3651/9739

Keywords:

Modigliani, finanza, habitat preferito, Miller

Abstract

L’articolo esamina l’influenza dei contributi di Modigliani su questioni di finanza. La teoria dell’habitat preferito, proposta per spiegare la struttura a termine dei tassi di interesse, è stata utilizzata dagli operatori finanziari fino agli anni '80. Poi è stata messa da parte come obsoleta, ma sembra che oggi possa di nuovo riprendere validità. Il teorema di Modigliani-Miller, oggetto di innumerevoli critiche, rimane comunque un pilastro nella teoria della finanza. Per contro, la tesi sulla sottovalutazione irrazionale della quotazioni azionarie nei periodi di inflazione ha lasciato del tutto indifferenti gli operatori finanziari. Ma molti economisti concordano con la conclusione che i mercati possono per lungo tempo svolgere male il compito di indirizzare le risorse verso gli impieghi più produttivi. 

 

The article examines the influence of the contributions of Modigliani on issues of finance. The preferred habitat theory, proposed to explain the term structure of interest rates, has been used by financial operators until the 80s. Then it was put aside as obsolete, but it seems that can again resume validity. The Modigliani-Miller theorem, the subject of many criticisms, it remains a pillar in the theory of finance. On the other hand, the thesis on the irrational underestimation of stock prices during periods of inflation has left quite indifferent financial operators. But many economists agree with the conclusion that markets can play hurt for a long time the task of directing resources towards more productive uses.

 

 

JEL Codes: B22, E43, E44, G10, G30

Keywords: Modigliani, finanza, habitat preferito, Modigliani, Miller


References

CE (2004), Monthly Bulletin, novembre.

BLACK F. e M. SCHOLES (1973), “The pricing of options and corporate liabilities”, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 81, no. 3, pp. 637-54.

CIOCCA P. e G. NARDOZZI (1993), L’alto prezzo del danaro, Laterza, Roma-Bari.

COZZI T. (1966), “Recent trends and interest rates: theory and evidence”, in Occupazione, crescita e tassi di interesse (reali?) in un contesto di globalizzazione dei mercati, Incontri di Rocca Salimbeni, Ufficio Pianificazione Strategica, Controllo di Gestione e Studi, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Siena, novembre, pp. 17-37.

GERTLER M. (1988), “Financial structure and aggregate economic activity: an overview”, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 20, no. 3, pp. 559-88.

GOODHART C.A.E. (1989) Money, Information and Uncertainty, 2nd edition, Macmillan, London; trad. it. Moneta e informazione, il Mulino, Bologna, 1994.

HOMER S. e R. SYLLA (1991), A History of Interest Rates, 3rd edition, Rutgers University, New Brunswick and London; trad. it. Storia dei tassi di interesse, Laterza, Roma-Bari, 1995.

KEYNES J.M. (1923), A Tract on Monetary Reform, Macmillan, London; trad. it. La riforma monetaria, Fratelli Treves, Milano, 1925.

LANDER J., A. ORPHANIDES e M. DOUVOGIANNIS (1997), “Earnings forecasts and the predictability of stock returns: evidence from trading the S&P”, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Federal Reserve Board, no. 1997-6, anche in Journal of Portfolio Management, vol. 23, no. 4, pp. 24-35.

MILLER M.H. (1988), “The Modigliani-Miller propositions after thirty years”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 2, no. 4, pp. 99-120.

MILLER M.H. e F. MODIGLIANI (1961), “Dividend policy, growth and the valuation of shares”, The Journal of Business, vol. 34, October, pp. 411-33.

MODIGLIANI F. (1980), “Introduction”, in The Collected Papers of Franco Modigliani, vol. 1, pp. xi-xix.

MODIGLIANI F. (1980), The Collected Papers of Franco Modigliani, vols 1-3, The MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass.

MODIGLIANI F. (1980), Financial Markets, The MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass., ristampato in The Collected Papers of Franco Modigliani, The MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass., vol. 5, 1989.

MODIGLIANI F. (1982), “Debt, dividend policy, taxes, inflation, and market valuation”, The Journal of Finance, vol. 37, May, pp. 255-73.

MODIGLIANI F. (1983), “Comment to the article by L. H. Summers, “The nonadjustment of nominal interest rates: a study of the Fisher effect””, in J. Tobin ed., Macroeconomics, Prices & Quantities, Basil Blackwell, Oxford, pp. 241-44.

MODIGLIANI F. (1988), “MM – Past, present, future”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 2, no. 4, pp. 149-58.

MODIGLIANI F. e R.A. COHN (1979), “Inflation, rational valuation and the market”, Financial Analysts Journal, vol. 35, March-April, pp. 24-44.

MODIGLIANI F. e R.A. COHN (1982), “Inflation and the stock market”, in J.A. Boeckh and R.T. Coghlan eds, The Stock Market and Inflation, Dow Jones-Irwin, Homewood, pp. 99-117.

MODIGLIANI F. e M.H. MILLER (1958), “The cost of capital, corporation finance and the theory of investment”, The American Economic Review, vol. 48, June, pp. 261-97.

MODIGLIANI F. e M.H. MILLER (1963), “Corporate income taxes and the cost of capital: a correction”, The American Economic Review, vol. 53, June, pp. 433-43.

MODIGLIANI F. e R.J. SHILLER (1973), “Inflation, rational expectations and the term structure of interest rates”, Economica, vol. 40, February, pp. 12-43.

MODIGLIANI F. e R. SUTCH (1966), “Innovations in interest rate policy”, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, May, vol. 56, pp. 178-97.

MODIGLIANI F. e R. SUTCH (1967), “Debt management and the term structure of interest rates: an empirical analysis”, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 75, August, pp. 569-89.

ROSS S.A. (1976), “Return, risk and arbitrage”, in I. Friend e J. Bicksler eds, Risk and Return in Finance, vol. I, Ballinger, Cambridge, Mass., pp. 189-218.

SHILLER R.J. (1990), “The term structure of interest rates”, in B.M. Friedman and F.H. Hahn eds, Handbook of Monetary Economics, North-Holland, Amsterdam, vol. 1, pp. 627-722.

SHILLER R.J., J. CAMPBELL e K. SCHOENHOLTZ (1989), “Forward rates and future policy: interpreting the term structure of interest rates”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, no. 1, pp. 173-217.

STIGLITZ J.E. (1969), “A re-examination of the Modigliani-Miller theorem”, The American Economic Review, vol. 59, December, pp. 784-93.

STIGLITZ J.E. (1988), “Why financial structure matters”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 2, no. 4, pp. 121-26.

SUMMERS L.H. (1983), “The nonadjustment of nominal interest rates: a study of the Fisher effect”, in J. Tobin ed., Macroeconomics, Prices & Quantities, Basil Blackwell, Oxford, pp. 201-41.

Published

2012-04-23

Issue

Section

Articoli