Fluttuazioni endogene, deflazione da debiti e instabilità finanziaria (Endogenous fluctuations, debt deflation and financial instability)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3651/9749Keywords:
fluttuazioni endogene, crisi finanziarie, Minsky, distribuzione del redditoAbstract
Il presente lavoro studia le relazioni che intercorrono fra fluttuazioni endogene e crisi finanziarie facendo riferimento ad alcuni concetti, strumenti e metodologie che si rifanno all’analisi di Minsky. In particolare, l’articolo utilizza una funzione degli investimenti basata sul concetto di “cash flow” e la collega a una particolare struttura del mercato del lavoro in grado di generare una mutevole distribuzione del reddito. Queste equazioni sono arricchite dalla presenza di aspettative da parte dei vari operatori che cercano di “apprendere” (learning) la dinamica del sistema facendo riferimento a “rolling regressions”. Le simulazioni del modello non-lineare sono in grado di generare fluttuazioni persistenti che sono accompagnate, a seconda delle ipotesi fatte, da fenomeni inflazionistici o deflazionistici. In questo contesto, l'instabilità finanziaria e la deflazione da debiti rappresentano più l’incapacità del sistema ad avere fluttuazioni contenute che non lo scoppio di bolle finanziarie come in Minsky.
This paper studies the relationships between endogenous fluctuations and financial crises with reference to some of the concepts, tools and methodologies that are based on the analysis of Minsky. In particular, the article uses a function of investment based on the concept of "cash flow" and connects it to a particular structure of the labor market can generate a changing distribution of income. These equations are enriched by the presence of expectations of various actors who seek to "learn" the dynamics of the system by referring to "rolling regressions". The simulations of the non-linear model are able to generate persistent fluctuations that are accompanied, depending on the assumptions made, by phenomena inflation or deflation. In this context, financial instability and debt deflation are more the inability of the system to fluctuate given that the bursting of financial bubbles as in Minsky.
JEL Codes: E3, E22, E25, E27
Keywords: fluttuazioni endogene, crisi finanziarie, Minsky, distribuzione del reddito
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