Unemployment gap, isteresi e disoccupazione di lunga durata: quale ruolo per la comprensione dell’inflazione?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3651/17777Parole chiave:
Isteresi, Curva di Phillips, Inflazione, Disoccupazione di lunga durata, Conflitto distributivoAbstract
L’appiattimento della Curva di Phillips, in presenza di alti e persistenti tassi di disoccupazione, è una delle possibili manifestazioni dell’isteresi. L’interpretazione più diffusa attribuisce l’isteresi all’aumento dei disoccupati di lunga durata i quali, in quanto emarginati dal mercato del lavoro, ostacolerebbero l’azione depressiva della disoccupazione totale sui salari. Non considerare "il rischio" di isteresi, porterebbe a sottostimare il NAIRU e ad attendersi una disinflazione maggiore di quella effettivamente osservata. Per quanto rappresenti un tentativo di estendere al lungo periodo il ruolo della domanda aggregata, la teoria dell’isteresi resta ancorata ai principi neoclassici e necessita di addurre eccezioni particolari per spiegare i fenomeni della persistenza della disoccupazione e dell’assenza di (dis)inflazione. Al contrario, un approccio alternativo che coniughi il principio della domanda effettiva con una spiegazione conflittuale della distribuzione può fornire una spiegazione solida della presenza di alti tassi di disoccupazione e delle dinamiche dei prezzi.
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