La teoria del ciclo vitale del risparmio di Modigliani cinquant’anni dopo
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3651/9736Parole chiave:
ciclo vitale del consumo, ciclo vitale del risparmio, Keynes, politica economicaAbstract
In the early 50s Franco Modigliani and Richard Brumberg and Albert Ando, formulated the life-cycle theory of consumption and saving, which has been a huge success and undisputed for at least three decades. However, since the early 80s the life-cycle theory has been criticized in an increasingly tight for at least four reasons. The first is the existence of a significant intergenerational transmission of wealth, due to factors exogenous to the model of the life cycle. The second reason is the increasing evidence that the rich continue to save a greater extent than the less fortunate, as, in fact, Keynes argued. The third reason is that there is increasing evidence, at least in Western Europe and Japan, young families, during twenty and thirty years of age, save a positive and growing share of their income, which arises in decided contrast to the original version of the life-cycle theory. Finally, a number of empirical studies have found that retirees dismiss a high proportion of their income. This requires a serious rethinking of the approach of the life-cycle theory, which affects both the economic analysis and economic policy.
Nei primi anni ’50 Franco Modigliani, insieme a Richard Brumberg e ad Albert Ando, formulò la teoria del ciclo vitale del consumo e del risparmio, che ha riscosso un enorme e indiscusso successo per almeno tre decenni. Tuttavia, a partire dai primi anni ’80 la teoria del ciclo vitale è stata criticata in modo sempre più serrato, per almeno quattro ragioni. La prima consiste nell’esistenza di una significativa trasmissione intergenerazionale della ricchezza, da ricondurre a cause esogene al modello del ciclo vitale. La seconda ragione è rappresentata dalla crescente evidenza che i ricchi continuano a risparmiare in misura maggiore rispetto ai meno fortunati, come, in effetti, Keynes sosteneva. Il terzo motivo è che vi sono prove sempre più evidenti, almeno nell’Europa occidentale e in Giappone, che le famiglie giovani, durante i venti e i trenta anni di età, risparmiano una quota positiva e crescente del proprio reddito, e ciò si pone in deciso contrasto con la versione originaria della teoria del ciclo vitale. Infine, numerosi lavori empirici hanno rilevato che i pensionati accantonano una parte elevata del proprio reddito. Ciò impone un serio ripensamento dell’approccio della teoria del ciclo vitale, che interessa sia l’analisi economica sia la politica economica.
JEL Codes: E21, D31, D91
Keywords: ciclo vitale del consumo; ciclo vitale del risparmio; Keynes ; politica economica
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