Structural and transitory determinants of labour mobility: “Holt’s conjecture” and Italian experience
Keywords:Holt’s conjecture, labour market, Italy, Phillips curve, labour mobility
The work looks at Holt’s theoretical model of the labour market based on turnover rates and the case of Italy. The authors argue that Holt’s assumption that the flows of hirings and separations are random variables which remain constant as aggregate demand varies cannot be justified theoretically or empirically. “Holt’s conjecture” and the implications of its theoretical construction for the labour market and the Phillips curve are first examined. The authors then present a basic model and describe its implications for the structural and transitory determinants of labour mobility. An empirical test is then made with reference to the flows of hirings and separations in Italy are the results are presented. Finally, the authors then discuss the implications of their model.
JEL: J01, J60