Revisiting Growth of Brazilian Economy (1980-2012)
Keywords:structural change, capital accumulation, semi-stagnation, Brazil
AbstractThe objective of this article is to analyze the causes of growth deceleration in the Brazilian economy initiated in the mid-1980s from a Keynesian-Structuralist perspective, according to which long-term growth is associated with structural change and capital accumulation. The article will analyze the period from 1980 to 2012 and will test the hypothesis that growth slowdown was caused by a large reduction in the rate of capital accumulation, due to a substantial reduction of the investment share in real output that begun in the 1980s and increased in the 1990s. The reduction of the investment share was the result of the existing imbalances of macroeconomic prices (mainly overvalued real exchange rate and exchange rate/wage ratio) which caused a premature deindustrialization of the Brazilian economy, with negative effects on investment opportunities. The obtained econometric results demonstrate the theoretical hypothesis regarding growth deceleration of the Brazilian economy.
JEL codes: O1, O11, O14
Alvim C.F., Eidelman F., Mafra O., Ferreira O.C. (2006), “Avaliação do Impacto do Incremento da Produtividade de Capital sobre o Crescimento Econômico”, Economia & Energia, 10 (56), pp. 2-36.
Alvim C.F., Eidelman F., Mafra O., Ferreira O.C. (2007), “Energia nuclear em um cenário de trinta anos”, Estudos Avançados, 21 (59), pp. 197-219.
Bhaduri A. and Marglin S. (1990), “Unemployment and the Real Wage: The Economic Basis for Contesting Political Ideologies”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 14 (4), pp. 375-393.
Bonelli R. and Bacha E. (2013), “O crescimento brasileiro revisitado”, in Veloso F., Ferreira P.C., Giambiagi F. and Pessoa S. (eds.), Desenvolvimento Econômico: uma perspectiva brasileira (pp. 236-262), Rio de Janeiro: Elsevier.
Bresser-Pereira L.C. (2007), A Macroeconomia da Estagnação, São Paulo: Editora 34.
Bresser-Pereira L.L., Oreiro J.L. and Marconi N. (2014), Developmental Macroeconomics: New Developmentalism as a Growth Strategy, London: Routledge.
Carvalho F. (2015), Liquidity Preference and Monetary Economies, London: Routledge.
Gala P. (2017), Complexidade Econômica: uma nova perspectiva para entender a antiga questão da Riqueza das Nações, Rio de Janeiro: Contraponto.
Hamilton J.D. (1994), Time Series Analysis, Princeton (NJ): Princeton University Press.
Harrod R. (1948), Towards a Dynamic Theory: Some Recent Developments of Economic Theory and Its Application to Economic Policy, London: MacMillan.
Hidalgo C. (2015), Why Information Grows: The Evolution of Order, from Atoms to Economics, New York: Basic Books.
Johnson RA. and Wichern D. (2002), Applied Multivariate Statistical Analysis, 3rd edition, Upper Saddle River (NJ): Prentice-Hall.
Kaldor N. (1957), “A Model of Economic Growth”, Economic Journal, 67 (268), pp. 591-624.
Kaldor N. (1966), Causes of the Slow Rate of Economic Growth of the United Kingdom, Cambridge (UK): Cambridge University Press.
Kaldor N. (1970), “The Case for Regional Policies”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 17 (3), pp. 337-348.
Kaldor N. (1980), Essays on Economic Stability and Growth, London: Duckwort.
Kalecki M. (1954), The Theory of Economic Dynamics, London: Allen &Unwin.
Kalecki M. (1971), Selected Essays on the Dynamics of the Capitalist Economy, Cambridge (UK): Cambridge University Press.
Keynes J.M. (1936), The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, London: Macmillan.
Lewis W.A. (1954), “Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour”, The Manchester School, 22 (2), pp. 139-191.
Marconi N. and Rocha M. (2012), “Desindustrialização precoce e sobrevalorização da taxa de câmbio”, IPEA Texto para Discussão, no. 1681, Brasilia: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada.
McCombie J.S. and Thirwall A.P. (1994), Economic Growth and Balance of Payments Constraint, London: Macmillan.
Minsky H.P. (1982), Can “It” Happen Again? Essays on Instability and Finance, Armonk: M.E. Sharpe.
Morandi L. and Reis E. (2004), “Estoque de Capital Fixo no Brasil, 1950-2002”, in Papers and Proceedings of the XXXII National Meeting of Economics– ANPEC João Pessoa, 7-9 December, pp. 1-20.
Oreiro J.L. (2016), Macroeconomia do desenvolvimento: uma perspectiva Keynesiana, Rio de Janeiro: LTC.
Oreiro J.L. and Araújo E. (2013), “Exchange Rate Misalignment, Capital Accumulation and Income Distribution: Theory and Evidence from the Case of Brazil”, Panoeconomicus, 60(3), pp. 381-396.
Oreiro J.L.C. and D’Agostini L.L.M. (2017), “Macroeconomic Policy Regimes, Real Exchange Rates Overvaluation and the Performance of the Brazilian Economy (2003-2015)”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 40(1), pp. 27-42.
Robinson J. (1962), Essays in the Theory of Economic Growth, London: MacMillan.
Rodrik D. (2015), “Premature Deindustrialization”, NBER Working Paper, no. 20935, February, Cambridge (MA): National Bureau of Economic Research.
Rowthorn R.E (1981), “Demand, Real Wages and Economic Growth”, Studi Economici, 18, pp. 3-54.
Steindl J. (1952), Maturity and Stagnation in American Capitalism, Oxford: Blackwell.
Taylor L. and O’Connell S.A. (1985), “A Minsky Crisis”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 100 (supplement), pp. 871-885.
Thirwall A. (2002), The Nature of Economic Growth, Cheltenham (UK) and Northampton (MA): Edward Elgar.
Thirwall A. (2006), Growth and Development: With Special Reference to Developing Economies, London: Palgrave.
Verspagen B. (1993), Uneven Growth between Interdependent Economies: An Evolutionary View on Technological Gaps, Trade and Growth, New York: Avebury.