The effects of migration on epidemics: issues and models

Abstract

Epidemics and demographic dynamics frequently interact in the contemporary globalized world and concurrently contribute to the spread of infections. Migrations constitute some relevant demographic dynamics among local communities and, when an epidemic is in act, they add further complexity to the model design of the epidemic and to its evaluation and possible control measures. This paper offers various schemes of epidemic modelling, where the exogenous fractions of susceptible and infected/infectious individuals migrate into a local community on the basis of sociodemographic, economic and climate change issues. A classical Kermack-McKendrick SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) dynamical model is flexible enough to describe the spread of several common infections such as most hepatitis, HIV/AIDS and other STD diseases, all exanthematous infections and others and is here adjusted to accommodate  various schemes of migration, both susceptible and infected/infectious. Results of the modelling design provide qualitative information on the overall dynamics of the spread of the infections and can be used to appoint more effective public health measures of control.