Extreme floods in Central Jordan: frequency analysis
Keywords:flash floods, frequency analysis, intermittent flow, Jordan
This research aims at analyzing the frequency and duration distribution of extreme floods, including flash, in the Wala catchment - Central Jordan. The observed daily flows series, October 2002 to August 2016, was short to characterize extreme events like the 10th of November 2018 deadly flash flood. Therefore, a very long series of intermittent daily flows was synthesized assuming that the daily flow-nonflow process is stationary two-state simple Markov and the daily flow magnitude is Gamma distributed. The synthesized flows have succeeded to copy the characteristics of the observed flows. The analysis of the Wala observed, simulated daily flows and results from the theoretical model showed that floods of duration 2 days or less were dominant events (64%); the single day type was more often (40%) compared to the 2 days flood (24%). Regarding the 10th of November 2018 deadly flash flood of 10.368MCM/day, the inspection of the synthesized daily flows showed that it was an uncommon incident of 78 years recurrence time. Afforestation the upper regions in the Wala catchment and construction of counter terracing are possible measures to mitigate the impact of future flash floods.
How to Cite
Copyright (c) 2020 Italian journal of engineering geology and environment
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.