Annual temperature impact on moraine lake outbursts in tibet, china

Abstract

Glacier-lake outburst is common in Tibet. Global warming is expected to increase the frequency of outburst. This paper attempts to find out the relationship between the outburst and annual temperature variation based on analysis of 16 outburst events in Tibet. Multiyear climate data from meteorological stations in the study area are used. We find that the outbursts are sensitive to acute change in annual temperature. Specifically, the outburst probability increases when average annual temperature rises by more than 0.5°C. Finally, we put forwards an evaluation of the increasing risk of potential outburst of glacier lake in Tibet.