Assessment of a mudflow hazard on the Black Sea coast of Caucasus and in the adjacent mountainous areas

Abstract

Assessment of a mudflow hazard in the current period of unstable climate and possible extreme situations is especially important for the Caucasian Black Sea coast. Here mudflows constantly threaten to economic and tourist’s objects and happen due to the mass construction of different structures, including their probable appearance during preparation of XXII Olympic Winter Games of 2014 in Sochi. The hazard assessment of mudflows is made through analyzing their activity and the degree to which they affect the territory. Data on the mudflow activity in the past and present time are extrapolated for the period up to 2015 basing on analysis of the basic changing factors of their formation: meteorological and anthropogenic ones in the interaction with geological conditions. High mudflows activity is expected in the nearest years both on the territory where they were known earlier and also in the areas under intensive development. The highest hazard is possible in 2011 - 2012.