Regional short–term forecast of debris flow initiation for glaciated high mountain zone of the caucasus

Abstract

We present a methodology for generalised regional-scale forecast of debris flow activity for territories with uniform conditions of debris flows formation. In the high mountain region of the Central Caucasus the trend of activation of debris flows processes is connected with the degradation of glaciers. For the development of debris flows forecast combined physical–statistical models based on long-term observation series are shown to be optimal. The authors develop an original and simple method of debris flows forecast for high mountains region with glaciation. The method is based on predictors readily available in practice, namely daily temperatures and precipitation. The method of compilation of a short- term debris flows forecast for high mountain zone of the Central Caucasus is proposed and recommendations for its practical usage are presented.