Development of a flood sensitivity model to improve land location and urban planning using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method and Geographic Information System (GIS): the risk of floods in the city of Tebassa (ALGERIA) as a model

Abstract

This study applies the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to assess flood vulnerability in Tébessa, Algeria, considering social, physical, and resource-related factors. Between 2008 and 2023, rainfall events of 45-70 mm caused extensive flooding, impacting most urban areas, especially rapidly growing neighborhoods, and resulting in significant damage to buildings and infrastructure. Social factors were found to be the main contributors to risk exposure. High hazard zones cover 32.06% of the city, mainly in central areas and older neighborhoods, while medium and low hazard levels account for 18% and 28%, mostly in peripheral areas. The uncontrolled expansion along river corridors (Zaarour, Naqis, Rafanah, and Saqi) has increased flood risk. The combined AHP-GIS approach identifies critical zones, evaluates potential impacts, and supports management strategies, including contingency planning and land-use regulation. The resulting thematic vulnerability maps provide essential guidance for prioritizing risk areas, improving urban resilience, and implementing sustainable planning and prevention measures. By synthesizing complex spatial data into a comprehensive vulnerability index, this methodology facilitates informed decision-making, protects people and infrastructure, and strengthens flood risk management in Tébessa.