Temporal prediction of landslide occurrence: a possibility or a challenge?

Abstract

In the framework of landslide risk reduction, predicting the time of occurrence of a slope failure is a goal of major importance. The task is far from simple, since it is practically impossible to account for the large number of controlling variables and factors. For these reasons, an empirical and phenomenological approach is commonly employed in the time of slope failure prediction, given that it removes all the uncertainties involved. Based on the observation and interpretation of monitored data, this approach infers such time mainly from ground surface displacements using regression techniques based on empirical functions and neglecting rheological soil parameters. The paper presents an overview of the methods associated with this approach, with particular emphasis on Fukuzono’s method accompanied by a number of its applications. Moreover, after a short account of advanced remote sensing techniques and an outline of the qualitative link between creep and progressive failure, a plot is shown which is potentially useful for early warning when historical displacement data are not available.