La restrizione del credito in uno schema di teoria monetaria della produzione: il caso italiano
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3651_71.283_3Keywords:
monetary theory of production, credit restriction, aggregate demandAbstract
Questo articolo analizza le determinanti e gli effetti di una stretta creditizia in Italia, all’interno della teoria monetaria della produzione elaborata da Augusto Graziani. Sosteniamo che la restrizione creditizia, tra le altre cose, dipende da un declino nella domanda aggregata. Dal punto di vista empirico, ciò è mostrato per Italia, Francia e Germania. Tuttavia, si evidenzia che una stretta monetaria decisa dalla Banca Centrale Europea – quindi comune ai tre paesi – non induce una riduzione statisticamente significativa del credito in Italia. Questo risultato probabilmente è causato della scarsa sostituibilità del credito bancario come fonte di finanziamento, dato che la struttura produttiva italiana è prevalentemente caratterizzata da piccole e medie imprese.
This paper deals with the causes and the effects of a credit restriction in Italy, within the theoretical framework of the monetary theory of production, as elaborated by Augusto Graziani. It will be argued that credit restriction ultimately depends on the decline of aggregate demand. Empirically, this view is supported for Italy, France and Germany. However, a monetary policy tightening implemented by the European Central Bank does not lead to a significant credit reduction in Italy, probably due to the low degree of substitutability of bank financing, given that the Italian production structure is mainly characterized by small and medium enterprises.
JEL codes: E12, E51, E52
Keywords: monetary theory of production, credit restriction, aggregate demand
References
Becker B. e Ivashina V. (2014), “Cyclicality of Credit Supply: Firm Level Evidence”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 62 (marzo), pp. 76-93.
Bellofiore V.R. (2013), “‘Two or Three Things I Know about Her’: Europe in the Global Crisis and Heterodox Economics”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 37 (3), pp. 497-512.
Beltratti A. e Stulz R. M. (2012), “The Credit Crisis around the Globe: Why Did Some Banks Perform Better?”, Journal of Financial Economics, 105 (1), pp. 1-17.
Benkwitz A., Lütkepohl H. e Wolters J. (2001), “Comparison of Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Impulse Responses of German Monetary Systems”, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 5 (1), pp. 81-100.
Bernanke B.S. e Gertler M. (1999), “The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework”, in Taylor J.B. e Woodford M. (a cura di), The Handbook of Macroeconomics, vol. 1, part C (pp. 1341-1393), Amsterdam: North Holland.
Bernanke B. e Mihov I. (1998), “Measuring Monetary Policy”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113 (3), pp. 869-902.
Bofondi M., Carpinelli L. e Sette E. (2017), “Credit Supply during a Sovereign Debt Crisis”, Journal of the European Economic Association, 16 (3), pp. 696-729.
Bonci R. e Columba F. (2008), “Monetary Policy Effects: New Evidence from the Italian Flow-of-Funds”, Applied Economics, 40 (21), pp. 2803-2818.
Brummer C. (2010), “Post-American Securities Regulation”, California Law Review, 98 (2), pp. 327-383.
Cardim de Carvalho F. J. (2012), “Aggregate Savings, Finance and Investment”, Intervention, 9 (2), pp. 197-213.
Chiades P. e Gambacorta L. (2004), “The Bernanke and Blinder Model in an Open Economy: The Italian Case”, German Economic Review, 5 (1), pp. 1-34.
Christiano L., Eichembaum M. e Evans C. L.. (1998), “Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?”, NBER working paper, n. 6400, Cambridge (MA): National Bureau of Economic Research.
De Arcangelis G. e Di Giorgio G. (2001), “Measuring Monetary Policy Shocks in a Small Open Economy”, Economic Notes, 30 (1), pp. 81-107.
Del Giovane P., Nobili A. e Signoretti F.M. (2013), “Supply Tightening or Lack of Demand? An Analysis of Credit Developments During the Lehman Brothers and the Sovereign Debt Crises”, Banca d’Italia Working Paper, n. 942, novembre, Roma: Banca d’Italia.
Dell’Ariccia G., Goyal R., Koeva Brooks P., Pradhan M., Tressel T. e Pazarbasioglu C. (2013), “A Banking Union for the Euro Area”, IMF Staff Discussion Notes, n. 13/01, Washington (DC): Fondo Monetario Internazionale.
D’Ippoliti C. e Roncaglia A. (2011), “L’Italia: una crisi nella crisi”, Moneta e Credito, 64 (255), pp. 189-227.
Forges Davanzati G. (2011), Credito, produzione, occupazione: Marx e l’istituzionalismo, Roma: Carocci.
Forges Davanzati G., Patalano R. e Traficante G. (2017), “The Italian Economic Stagnation in a Kaldorian Theoretical Framework”, Economia Politica – Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, November, pp. 1-21.
Graziani A. (2003), The Monetary Theory of Production, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Hodgson G.M. (1998), Economics and Institutions, Cambridge: Polity Press e Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.
Kaldor N. (1966), Causes of the Slow Rate of Economic Growth of the United Kingdom. An Inaugural Lecture, Londra: Cambridge University Press.
Mian A., Sufi A. e Verner E. (2017), “How Do Credit Supply Shocks Affect the Real Economy?”, NBER Working Paper, n. 23802, Cambridge (MA): National Bureau of Economic Research.
Montanaro E. e Tonveronachi M. (2017), “Vulnerabilità del sistema bancario italiano. Diagnosi e rimedi”, Moneta e Credito, 70 (280), pp. 299-368.
O’Connor J. (1977), La crisi fiscale dello Stato, Torino: Einaudi.
Palley T. I. (2013), “Horizontalists, Verticalists, and Structuralists: The Theory of Endogenous Money Reassessed”, Review of Keynesian Economics, 1 (4), pp. 406-424.
Panetta F., Angelini P. e Grande G. (2014), “The Negative Feedback Loop between Banks and Sovereigns”, Bank of Italy, Occasional Paper, n. 213, Roma: Banca d’Italia.
Parguez A. (2011), “Money Creation, Employment and Economic Stability: The Monetary Theory of Unemployment and Inflation”, in Gnos C. e Rochon L.-P. (a cura di), Credit, Money and Macroeconomic Policy. A Post-Keynesian Approach (pp. 71-79), Cheltenham (UK) and Northampton (MA): Edward Elgar.
Piluso V.G. (2014), “Riscrivere le regole in Europa, rivedere il modello delle banche in Italia”, Economia Italiana, 2014 (1), pp. 21-28.
Pivetti M. (1985), “On the Monetary Explanation of Distribution”, Political Economy, 1 (2), pp. 73-110.
Rochon L.-P., and Rossi S. (2007), “Central Banking and Post-Keynesian Economics”, Review of Political Economy, 19 (4), pp. 539-554.
Stiglitz J.E. e Weiss A. (1992), “Asymmetric Information in Credit Markets and Its Implications for Macro-Economics”, Oxford Economic Papers, 44 (4), pp. 694-724.
Visco I. (2017), Considerazioni finali del Governatore sul 2016, 31 maggio, Roma: Banca d’Italia; disponibile alla URL https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/interventi-governatore/integov2017/cf_2016.pdf
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
All material in this website and every article published by the review are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution - Non commercial - No derivates 4.0 International license. Authors retain all rights on their works and grant the right to first publication to the review under the aforementioned license.
