Quantitative shallow landslide risk assessment at regional – scale: Tuscany region (central Italy) as case study

Abstract

Landslides are one of the most common geohazards globally, causing considerable losses in human life and property damage. Italy is one of the European countries most severely affected by landslides due to its geological and urban setting. Moreover, as the climate continues to change, extreme rainfall events are becoming more frequent, leading to a sharp rise in landslide occurrences, often numbering in the hundreds or even thousands during a single episode. An example of this trend is represented by the Tuscany region (central Italy), which has experienced an extreme rainfall event on 2 November 2023 that triggered severe flooding and widespread landslides, highlighting the need for an updated and comprehensive assessment of landslide risk. As a result, in this contribution, we present a quantitative landslide risk assessment for the Tuscany region, focusing on rapid shallow landslides. Risk is expressed as potential economic losses (€) to building and land use. The findings show that the highest risk values are concentrated along the Apennine chain, where geomorphologically susceptible terrains overlap with urbanized and agricultural areas. The aggregation of potential losses yields a total economic risk of approximately 1.7 billion €.