Spesa pensionistica:quanto conta la crescita economica? (Paying for Pensions: How Important Is Economic Growth? )
Parole chiave:Ageing, Demographics, Expenditure, Growth, Pension, Population
This paper focuses on the scope for a higher level of output and faster productivity growth to ease future fiscal pressures stemming from demographic developments in OECD countries over the next fifty years. After concluding that, without substantial reforms, pressure on government spending linked to ageing populations (both on pensions and health expenditures), will in general result in significant increases in expenditures to GDP ratios, the paper examines how these pressures might be redressed. Responses which focus on achieving an increase in the average number of years individuals spend active in the labour force and raising the level as well as widening the sources of individual provision of retirement income are recommended. Increasing output (through lower structural unemployment and higher female and elderly workers' participation rates) and its rate of growth (through gains in productivity) are seen as offering a complementary, though limited, response.
JEL Codes: H55, O40, J14, J11, J26
Keywords: Ageing, Demographics, Expenditure, Growth, Pension, Population
BLÖNDAL, S. e S. SCARPETTA (1999), "Early retirement in OECD countries: the role of social security systems", OECD Economic Studies, no. 29.
DANG T.-T., P. ANTOLIN eH. OXLEY (2001), "The fiscal implications of ageing: projections of age-related spending", OECD Economics Department Working Papers, no. 305.
ECONOMIC POLICY COMMITTEE (2000), "Progress report to the ECOFIN Council onthe impact of ageing population on public pension systems", EPC/ECOFIN/581/00-EN REV1, Brussels.
HAGEMANN, R.P. e G. NICOLETTI (1989), "Ageing populations: economic effects andimplications for public finance", OECD Economics Department Working Paper, no.61.
HVIDING, K. e M. MERETTE (1998), "The macroeconomic effects of pension reforms in the context of ageing populations: overlapping generations model simulationsfor seven OECD countries", OECD Economics Department Working Paper, no.201.
JACOBZONE, S., E. CAMBOISe J.M. ROBINE (2000), "Is the health of older persons inOECD countries improving fast enough to compensate for population ageing?", OECD Economic Studies, no. 30.
LEIBFRITZ, W., D. ROSEVEARE, D. FOREe E. WURZEL (1995), "Ageing populations, pension systems and government budgets: how do they affect savings?", OECDEconomics Department Working Paper, no. 156.
OECD (1988), Ageing Populations, the Social Policy Implications, Paris.
OECD (1988), The Future of Social Protection, Paris.
OECD (1998), Maintaining Prosperity in an Ageing Society, Paris.
OECD (1998), "Retirement income systems: reform process across OECD countries", Ageing Working Paper, no. AWP 3.4.
OECD (2000), Reforms for an Ageing Society, Paris.
OECD (2000), OECD Economic Outlook, no. 67, Paris.
OECD (2000), OECD Economic Outlook, no. 68, Paris.
OECD (2000), OECD Economic Survey: Italy, Paris.
OECD (2001), OECD Economic Outlook, no. 69, Paris.
OECD (2001), The New Economy: Beyond the Hype, Paris.
OXLEY, H. (2001), "OECD experience with projecting age-related expenditure",OECD Economics Department, internal mimeo.
ROSEVEARE, D., W. LEIBFRITZ, D. FOREe E. WURZEL (1996), "Ageing populations, pension systems and government budgets: simulations for 20 OECD countries", OECD Economics Department Working Paper, no. 168.
SCHIEBER, S.J. e P.S. HEWITT (2000), "Demographic risk in industrial societies",World Economics, vol. 1, no. 4.
TURNER, D., C. GIORNO, A. DESERRES, A. VOURC'H e P. RICHARDSON (1998),"The macroeconomic implications of ageing in a global context", OECD Economics Department Working Paper, no. 193.
UNITED NATIONS (2000), Replacement Migration: Is it a Solution to Declining andAgeing Populations?, Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Af
fairs, New York.
VISCO, I. (2000), "Welfare, invecchiamento della popolazione e lavoro: una prospettiva OCSE", Moneta e Credito, n. 209, pp. 55-85.
VISCO, I. (2000), "Immigration, development and the labour market", relazione presentata alla conferenza internazionale dell'Agenzia romana per la preparazionedel Giubileo "Migration: scenarios for the 21stcentury", Roma, 12-14 luglio.
Ogni materiale pubblicato sul sito e gli articoli pubblicati sulla rivista sono distribuiti con Licenza internazionale Creative Commons Attribuzione - Non commerciale - Non opere derivate 4.0. Copia della licenza è disponibile alla URL http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0. Gli autori mantengono i diritti sulla loro opera e cedono alla rivista il diritto di prima pubblicazione dell'opera con la licenza suindicata.
All material in this website and every article published by the review are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution - Non commercial - No derivates 4.0 International license. Authors retain all rights on their works and grant the right to first publication to the review under the aforementioned license.