Il mutevole carattere del cosi detto ciclo economico
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3651/10956Keywords:
Business cycle, development processAbstract
The common assumption of most of the theoretical models of the business cycle is that this phenomenon has remained basically unchanged over time, the only exception being the great depression, which is regarded as an important yet particular episode. The author sets out to prove that this assumption is incorrect and that a distinction must be made between at least three periods. The first period, from 1800 to 1913, is characterised by conventional business cycles. The second period, between the two world wars, is marked more by violent and irregular fluctuations than any true cycles themselves. And finally, the third period, which begins with the end of World War II, is marked by economic cycles of a new type. The main argument is that the characteristics of the business cycle can not be defined in the abstract, since they are closely connected with the development process and with the industries that drive this process in each historical period. Although generalisations may be proposed, they must be done on the condition that our theoretical analysis prepare the way for empirical analysis, and that these analyses in turn are used to modify the same theoretical models.
JEL Codes: E32
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