Guerra e moneta: come il conflitto in Ucraina cambierà il sistema monetario internazionale
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3651/17741Parole chiave:
payment system, SWIFT, digital currency, RussiaAbstract
L’invasione dell’Ucraina cambierà profondamente gli scenari economici e politici. Assieme alle sanzioni, accelererà il processo di ‘de-globalizzazione’ innescato dalla crisi finanziaria del 2008 e dalla pandemia. In questo lavoro analizziamo gli effetti che le sanzioni avranno su questi processi, in particolare sul sistema monetario internazionale. Negli ultimi anni il dominio del dollaro come valuta dei pagamenti internazionali è declinato ma lentamente, e i tentativi soprattutto della Cina e della Russia di emarginarlo non hanno avuto grande successo. Tuttavia, nel nuovo scenario i sistemi alternativi a SWIFT, particolarmente quello cinese, riceveranno un forte impulso così come l’utilizzo di pagamenti in valute diverse dal dollaro. Come già successo in altre epoche storiche, il cambiamento della valuta di riferimento degli scambi internazionali è legato a eventi epocali e a un cambio di paradigma tecnologico: la guerra e la valuta digitale cinese e poi di altri paesi potrebbero costituire le basi di questa svolta.
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