Dalla teoria alla pratica nei modelli macroeconomici: l’eclettismo post-keynesiano (From theory to practice in macroeconomic models: the eclectic post-Keynesian)

Autori

  • Ignazio Visco

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3651/9734

Parole chiave:

Modigliani, stabilizzazione economica, eclettismo post-keynesiano

Abstract

Questo saggio riesamina e discute il contributo di Franco Modigliani alla costruzione di modelli macroeconomici utilizzati per la previsione e per l’elaborazione delle politiche economiche. Come ha osservato Paul Samuelson, il lavoro teorico svolto da Modigliani è stato fondamentale per lo sviluppo del quadro d’insieme entro il quale è maturato l’“eclettismo post-keynesiano” della seconda metà del ventesimo secolo. Nel passaggio dalla teoria alla pratica vengono considerati due aspetti del lavoro di Modigliani: 1) l’impostazione sistemica che si incentra sulla relazione tra il breve e il lungo periodo; 2) il particolare riferimento al meccanismo di trasmissione della politica monetaria nell’utilizzo del modello macroeconomico per le politiche di stabilizzazione economica. Si discute, infine, brevemente ciò che oggi resta di questo contributo, anche in relazione ad alcune recenti proposte sulla costruzione di modelli macroeconomici. 

 

This paper re-examines and discusses the contribution of Franco Modigliani in the construction of macroeconomic models used for prediction and for the development of economic policies. As noted by Paul Samuelson, the theoretical work done by Modigliani was instrumental in the development of the overall framework within which it is matured the " post-Keynesian eclecticism " in the second half of the twentieth century. In the transition from theory to practice are considered two aspects of the work of Modigliani: 1) the systemic approach that focuses on the relationship between the short and long term, and 2) the specific reference to the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the use of macroeconomic model for policies of economic stabilization. Discuss, finally, briefly what remains today of this contribution, also in connection with some recent proposals on the construction of macroeconomic models.

 

 

JEL Codes: B22; C5; E12; E52

Keywords: Modigliani, stabilizzazione economica, eclettismo post-keynesiano

Riferimenti bibliografici

ANDERSON, R. e J.J. ENZLER (1987), "Toward realistic policy design: policy reaction functions that rely on economic forecasts", in R.W. Dornbusch, S. Fischer e J. Bossons eds, Macroeconomics and Finance. Essays in Honor of Franco Modigliani, The MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass., pp. 291-330.

ANDERSON, R., A. ANDO e J.J. ENZLER (1984), "Interaction between fiscal and monetary policy and the real rate of interest", The American Economic Review, vol. 74, no. 2, pp. 55-60.

ANDO, A. (1959), "A contribution to the theory of economic fluctuations and growth", unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, Carnegie Institute of Technology.

ANDO, A. (1964), "An empirical model of United States economic growth: an exploratory study in applied capital theory", in NBER, Models of Income Determination, Princeton University Press, Princeton, pp. 327-79.

ANDO, A. (1974), "Some aspects of stabilization policies, the monetarist controversy, and the MPS model", International Economic Review, vol. 15, no. 3, October, pp. 541-71.

ANDO, A. (1981), "On a theoretical and empirical basis of macroeconometric models", in J. Kmenta e J.B. Ramsey eds, Large-scale Macro-econometric Models, North-Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam, pp. 329-67.

ANDO, A. e F. BRAYTON (1995), "Prices, wages and employment in the US economy: a traditional model and tests of some alternatives", in R. Cross ed., The Natural Rate of Unemployment: Reflections on 25 Years of Hypotheses, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 256-98.

ANDO, A. e F. MODIGLIANI (1959), "Growth, fluctuations, and stability", The American Economic Review, vol. 49, no. 2, pp. 501-24; trad. it. "Problemi scelti della teoria economica. Sviluppo, fluttuazione e stabilità", Rassegna della letteratura sui cicli economici, ISCO, Roma, settembre 1959.

ANDO, A. e F. MODIGLIANI (1963), "The ‘life cycle’ hypothesis of saving: aggregate implications and tests", The American Economic Review, vol. 53, no. 1, pp. 55-84.

ANDO, A. e F. MODIGLIANI (1965), "The relative stability of monetary velocity and the investment multiplier", The American Economic Review, vol. 55, no. 4, pp. 693-728.

ANDO A. e F. MODIGLIANI (1969), "Econometric analysis of stabilization policies", The American Economic Review, vol. 59, no. 2, pp. 296-314.

ANDO, A. e F. MODIGLIANI (1975), "Some reflections on describing structures of financial sectors", in G. Fromm e L.R. Klein eds, The Brookings Model: Perspective and Recent Developments, North-Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam, pp. 524-63.

ANDO, A., F. BRAYTON e A. KENNICKELL (1991), "Reappraisal of the Phillips curve and direct effects of money supply on inflation", in L.R. Klein ed., Comparative Performance of U.S. Econometric Models, Oxford University Press, New York, pp. 201-26.

ANDO, A., F. MODIGLIANI e R.H. RASCHE (1972), "Equations and definitions of variables for the FRB-MIT-PENN econometric model, November, 1969", Appendix to Part I, in B.G. Hickman ed., Econometric Models of Cyclical Behavior, vol. I, Columbia University Press, New York, pp. 543-98.

ANDO, A., F. MODIGLIANI, R.H. RASCHE e S.J. TURNOVSKY (1974), "On the role of expectations of price and technological change in an investment function", International Economic Review, vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 384-414.

BARRO, R.J. (1974), "Are government bonds net wealth?", Journal of Political Economy, vol. 82, no. 6, pp. 1095-117; trad. it. "I titoli di stato sono ricchezza netta?", in M. Marconi, a cura di, La stagflazione, il Mulino, Bologna, 1985, pp. 197-222.

BEAN, C. (2003), "Asset prices, financial imbalances and monetary policy: are inflation targets enough?", BIS Working Papers, no. 140, September.

BISCHOFF, C.W. (1969), "Hypothesis testing and the demand for capital goods", The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 51, no. 3, pp. 354-68.

BRAYTON, F. e E. MAUSKOPF (1985), "The Federal Reserve Board MPS quarterly econometric model of the US economy", Economic Modelling, vol. 2, no. 3, pp. 170-292.

CHRISTIANO, L.J., M. EICHENBAUM e C.L. EVANS (2005), "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy", Journal of Political Economy, vol. 113, no. 1, pp. 1-45.

CHRISTIANO, L.J., R. MOTTO e M. ROSTAGNO (2003), "The Great Depression and the Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 35, no. 6 (part 2), pp.

DE LEEUW, F. e E.M. GRAMLICH (1968), "The Federal Reserve-MIT econometric model", Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 54, no. 1, pp. 11-40.

DE LEEUW, F. e E.M. GRAMLICH (1969), "The channels of monetary policy: a further report on the Federal Reserve-MIT model", The Journal of Finance, vol. 24, no. 2, pp. 265-90.

DE MENIL, G. e J.J. ENZLER (1972), "Prices and wages in the FR-MIT-PENN econometric model", in O. Eckstein ed., The Econometrics of Price Determination, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System – Social Science Research Council, Washington, pp. 277-308.

DE PRANO, M. e T. MAYER (1965), "Tests of the relative importance of autonomous expenditures and money", The American Economic Review, vol. 55, no. 4, pp. 729-52.

FRIEDMAN, M. (1968), "The role of monetary policy", The American Economic Review, vol. 58, no. 1, pp. 1-17; trad. it. "Il ruolo della politica monetaria", Economia internazionale, n. 1, febbraio 1969, pp. 1-22.

FRIEDMAN, M. e D.I. MEISELMAN (1963), "The relative stability of monetary velocity and the investment multiplier in the United States, 1897-1958", in Stabilization Policies, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, pp. 165-268.

FRIEDMAN, M. e D.I. MEISELMAN (1965), "Reply to Ando and Modigliani and to De Prano and Mayer", The American Economic Review, vol. 55, no. 4, pp. 753-85.

HAFER R.W. e D.C. WHEELOCK (2001), "The rise and fall of a policy rule: monetarism at the St. Louis Fed, 1968-1986", Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, vol. 83, no. 1, pp. 1-24.

HICKS, J.R. (1937), "Mr. Keynes and the ‘classics’; a suggested interpretation", Econometrica, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 147-59; trad. it. "Keynes e i classici", in M.G. Müller, a cura di, Problemi di macroeconomia, vol. 1: Moneta, interesse, reddito, Etas Kompass, Milano, 1968, pp. 107-26.

JAFFEE, D.M. e F. MODIGLIANI (1969), "A theory and test of credit rationing", The American Economic Review, vol. 59, no. 5, pp. 850-72.

KLEIN, L.R. (1947), "Theories of effective demand and employment", Journal of Political Economy, vol. 55, no. 2, pp. 108-31; trad. it. "Teorie della domanda effettiva e dell’occupazione", in D. Horowitz ed., Marx, Keynes e i neomarxisti, Boringhieri, Torino, 1971, pp. 135-83.

KLEIN, L.R. (1950), Economic Fluctuations in the United States, 1921-1941, John Wiley & Sons, New York.

KLEIN, L.R. (1954), "The empirical foundations of Keynesian economics", in K.K. Kurihara ed., Post-Keynesian Economics, Rutgers University Press, New Brunswick, pp. 277-319.

KLEIN, L.R. (1964), "A postwar quarterly model: description and applications", in NBER, Models of Income Determination, Princeton University Press, Princeton, pp. 11-57.

KLEIN, L.R. (1992), "The Keynesian revolution: fifty years later: a last word" in Lawrence Klein’s ‘The Keynesian Revolution’: 50 Years after, Proceedings of the 12th Annual Economics Day, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, April, pp. 41-53.

KLEIN, L.R. (1994), "The role of economic theory: Keynesian macroeconomics", in P.A. Klein ed., The Role of Economic Theory, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Norwell, pp. 61-76.

KLEIN, L.R. e A.S. GOLDBERGER (1955), An Econometric Model of the United States, 1929-1952, North-Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam.

LUCAS, R.E. (1972), "Expectations and the neutrality of money", Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 103-24.

LUCAS, R.E. (1972), "Econometric testing of the natural rate hypothesis", in Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System – Social Science Research Council, The Econometrics of Price Determination, Washington, pp. 50-59; trad. it. "La verifica econometrica dell’ipotesi del tasso naturale", in I. Visco, a cura di, Le aspettative nell’analisi economica, il Mulino, Bologna, 1985, pp. 229-42.

MODIGLIANI, F. (1944), "Liquidity preference and the theory of interest and money", Econometrica, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 45-88; trad. it. "La preferenza per la liquidità e la teoria dell’interesse e della moneta", in Consumo, risparmio, finanza, il Mulino, Bologna, 1992, pp. 29-87.

MODIGLIANI, F. (1958), "New developments on the oligopoly front", Journal of Political Economy, vol. 66, no. 3, pp. 215-32; trad. it. "Nuovi sviluppi sul fronte dell’oligopolio", in W. Breit e H.M. Hochman, a cura di, Problemi di microeconomia, vol. II: Teoria dell’offerta e analisi delle forme di mercato, Etas Kompass, Milano, 1971, pp. 332-59.

MODIGLIANI, F. (1963), "The monetary mechanism and its interaction with real phenomena", The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 45, no. 1 (part 2), suppl., pp. 79-107; trad. it. "Il meccanismo monetario e la sua interazione con i fenomeni reali", in M. Monti, a cura di, Problemi di economia monetaria, Etas Kompass, Milano, 1969, pp. 129-80.

MODIGLIANI, F. (1971), "Monetary policy and consumption: linkages via interest rate and wealth effects in the FMP model", in Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Consumer Spending and Monetary Policy: the Linkages, Conference Series, no. 5, June, pp. 9-84.

MODIGLIANI, F. (1975), "The channels of monetary policy in the Federal Reserve-MIT-University of Pennsylvania econometric model of the United States", in G.A. Renton ed., Modelling the Economy, Heinemann Educational Books, London, pp. 240-67.

MODIGLIANI, F. (1977), "The monetarist controversy or, should we forsake stabilization policies?", The American Economic Review, vol. 67, no. 2, pp. 1-19; trad. it. "La polemica monetarista; ovvero: dovremmo abbandonare ogni politica di stabilizzazione?", Bancaria, vol. XXXV, n. 3, pp. 219-35.

MODIGLIANI, F. e A. ANDO (1976), "Impacts of fiscal actions on aggregate income and the monetarist controversy: theory and evidence", in J.L. Stein ed., Monetarism, North-Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam, pp. 17-42.

MODIGLIANI, F. e L. PAPADEMOS (1975), "Targets for monetary policy in the coming year", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, no. 1, pp. 141-63.

MODIGLIANI, F. e R.J. SHILLER (1973), "Inflation, rational expectations and the term structure of interest rates", Economica, vol. 40, no. 157, pp. 12-43; trad. it. "Inflazione, aspettative razionali e struttura per scadenza dei tassi di interesse", in F. Modigliani, Consumo, risparmio, finanza, il Mulino, Bologna, 1992, pp. 127-69.

MODIGLIANI, F. e R. SUTCH (1967), "Debt management and the term structure of interest rates: an empirical analysis of recent experience", Journal of Political Economy, vol. 75, no. 4 (part 2), suppl., pp. 569-89.

MODIGLIANI, F., R.H. RASCHE e J.P. COOPER (1970), "Central bank policy, the money supply, and the short-term rate of interest", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 166-218.

PHELPS, E.S. (1968), "Money-wage dynamics and labor-market equilibrium", Journal of Political Economy, vol. 76, no. 4 (part 2), pp. 678-711.

PHILLIPS, A.W. (1958), "The relation between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957", Economica, vol. 25, no. 100, pp. 283-99; trad.it. "La relazione tra disoccupazione e tasso di variazione dei saggi salariali monetari nel Regno Unito: 1861-1957", in M.G. Müller, a cura di, Problemi di macroeconomia, vol. 2: Consumi, investimenti, salari, Etas Kompass, Milano, 1968, pp. 228-47.

ASCHE, R.H. e H.T. SHAPIRO (1968), "The FRB-MIT econometric model: its special features", The American Economic Review, vol. 58, no. 2, pp. 123-49.

SAMUELSON, P.A. (1975), "The art and science of macromodels over 50 years", in G. Fromm e L.R. Klein eds, The Brookings Model: Perspective and Recent Developments , North-Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam, pp. 2-10.

SAMUELSON, P.A. (1986), "The 1985 Nobel prize in economics", Science, vol. 231, no. 4744, pp. 1399-401.

SAMUELSON, P.A. e R.M. SOLOW (1960), "Analytical aspects of anti-inflation policy", The American Economic Review, vol. 50, no. 2, pp. 177-94; trad. it. "Aspetti analitici della politica antinflazionistica", in M.G. Müller, a cura di, Problemi di macroeconomia, vol. III: Ciclo, sviluppo, politica economica, Etas Kompass, Milano, 1969, pp. 218-44.

SMETS, F. e R. WOUTERS (2003), "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area", Journal of the European Economic Association, vol. 1, no. 5, pp. 1123-75.

STURROCK, J. (1981), "Eliminating the tax discrimination against income from business capital: a proposal", in Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Public Policy and Capital Formation, Washington, pp. 281-302.

TOBIN, J. (1947), "Liquidity preference and monetary policy", The Review of Economic Statistics, vol. 29, no. 2, pp. 124-31; trad. it. "Preferenza per la liquidità e politica monetaria", in Moneta, crescita e scelte di portafoglio, il Mulino, Bologna, 1989, pp. 43-68.

TOBIN, J. (1999), "Supply constraints on employment and output: NAIRU versus natural rate", in G. Gandolfo e F. Marzano eds, Economic Theory and Social Justice, Macmillan Press, London, pp. 35-50.

VISCO, I. (1991), "A new round of US model comparisons: a limited appraisal", in L. R. Klein ed., Comparative Performance of U.S. Econometric Models, Oxford University Press, New York, pp. 289-315.

VISCO, I. (1991), "Politica economica ed econometria: alcune riflessioni critiche", in M. Faliva, a cura di, Il ruolo dell’econometria nell’ambito delle scienze economiche, il Mulino, Bologna, pp. 57-70.

##submission.downloads##

Pubblicato

2012-04-23

Fascicolo

Sezione

Articoli